The Smoking Musket - 2018 West Virginia Football PreviewChanging The Culture Of West Virginia Sportshttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/52574/tsm_fav.png2018-08-24T12:30:02-04:00http://www.smokingmusket.com/rss/stream/173618672018-08-24T12:30:02-04:002018-08-24T12:30:02-04:00The Smoking Musket Staff Predicts The 2018 Season
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<p>What better way to close out our 2018 preview series than by having every Musket staff member predicting how this season will go? Leave your predictions in the comments below!</p> <p id="t5bjam">As we wrap up our 2018 season previews and prepare to enter our first game week of the season, it’s only fitting that we close things out with everyone here at The Smoking Musket giving our hot takes on how the 2018 season is going to play out for the <a href="https://www.smokingmusket.com/">West Virginia Mountaineers</a> and college football in general.</p>
<p id="FG3qkL">Feel free to leave your predictions in the comments below. Get those on record now so, if they actually come true, you’ll look like a god danged genius.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="UUSQjK">
<h3 id="dKB077">Let’s start this off with one bold prediction for the 2018 college football season.</h3>
<h4 id="e0Ml0B"><span>Michael Miller</span></h4>
<p id="8goVhy">Dana Holgorsen turns down offers from at least one major program to stay at West Virginia after leading the Mountaineers to a Big 12 Championship, shocking the college football world and finally endearing himself to the anti-Dana crowd. </p>
<h4 id="6II0Nt">WVUNite</h4>
<p id="4Zom4b">Alabama fails to make the <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/college-football-playoff">College Football Playoff</a>s. Finally. In the Big 12, Kansas will win 2 conference games. </p>
<h4 id="c7wyey">Nick Shoemaker</h4>
<p id="SBKs8q">My one bold prediction is simple and optimistic. I think the Mountaineers are going to win the National Championship this year. I have two main reasons for this prediction. The first is a gut feeling that I can’t overlook. I have just had a feeling all summer that this football season is going to be historic for the Mountaineers, and I believe a National Championship will be the pinnacle of that historic season. The second reason is I trust in <span>Will Grier</span>’s ability. I believe he is a special talent and that he will find ways to win in games where WVU should probably lose.</p>
<h4 id="v62oLX">BartimusPrime</h4>
<p id="sVHVHu">David Sills V will not be WVU’s top-yardage receiver.</p>
<h4 id="3KsNxK">Robert Hurst</h4>
<p id="NmJvzs"><span>Kennedy McKoy</span> breaks out.</p>
<h4 id="rD391F">Matt Kirchner</h4>
<p id="mNUN8q"><span>Alec Sinkfield</span> emerges as a legitimate option in the run and pass game by the end of the year, giving West Virginia another important weapon going into Deathtober 2: Deathvember.</p>
<h4 id="DtIrsj">Jordan Pinto</h4>
<p id="XcTkjb">We’re beating Oklahoma. </p>
<h4 id="ng1dv4">WVUIE97</h4>
<p id="LBfcRO">David Sills V will actually play quarterback for USC one game with Lane Kiffin coaching AGAINST him. Nick Saban will actually shit a new player, although there will be no video evidence. Oh sorry, you said one.</p>
<h4 id="yV9111">StatsBoyAndi</h4>
<p id="jbsiJd">I will make a comment about wanting to have <span>Will Grier</span>’s children. </p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="JewK1E">
<h3 id="LjPYyV">How do you see the 2018 season faring for the West Virginia Mountaineers?</h3>
<h4 id="6FERub">Michael Miller</h4>
<p id="11bkig">The Mountaineers will go 9-3 in 2018. West Virginia will fall out of the rankings after losses at NC State and Texas Tech, but will shoot back up the polls after putting together a string of 6 wins before the Sooners invade Morgantown on Black Friday. Oklahoma takes the regular season finale in a close one, but has to face an angry group of Mountaineers the following week in Arlington in the Big 12 Championship game.</p>
<p id="AlYLnP">Will Grier goes off against the Sooner defense, and West Virginia hoists their first Big 12 Championship.</p>
<h4 id="dU12ML">WVUNite</h4>
<p id="WB4Um1">The Mountaineers storm into Charlotte and begin the season with a bang. The momentum builds as they ride a wave to 8-0 and a top 3 ranking. The season culminates with a showdown with Oklahoma and a CCG berth on the line. </p>
<h4 id="EzeVuS">Nick Shoemaker</h4>
<p id="kkinyf">Despite my belief that West Virginia will win the National Championship this year, I don’t think the Mountaineers will go undefeated. I think WVU will finish the regular season 11-1 with a 8-1 record in conference play. I think that one loss will be to Texas on the road. Along with my prediction that WVU will win the National Championship, I also think the Mountaineers will win the Big 12 Championship game. So my final record prediction would be 14-1 with a 9-1 record in conference games.</p>
<h4 id="rGWAX9">BartimusPrime</h4>
<p id="YCgLsA">WVU is a very straightforward team on paper: a dynamic offense with a defense that needs to gel before it can be considered good. If the offense can give the defense some cushion, then the D will be able to improve in the first month of the season before the real opponents show up on the schedule. I think this team has 10 wins in it, but I also think this schedule has at least three losses in it (if this doesn’t make sense, I know). This team better win nine games, but it can’t have a “brain fart” loss to achieve that win total or more. I see us at 9-3.</p>
<h4 id="mhjw0W">Robert Hurst</h4>
<p id="XWw0QO">11-2; losing in the Big 12 championship game.</p>
<h4 id="2wFRQy">Matt Kirchner</h4>
<p id="iBhauG">West Virginia ends up 9-3, but with one of the losses out of conference to NC State, the muddled Big 12 picture allows the Mountaineers to slide into the Big 12 Championship.</p>
<h4 id="hQVttC">Jordan Pinto</h4>
<p id="NMDnPq">The hype is real. We’re one of three teams with a chance to win the conference in November, and we secure a Big 12 title rematch with the Sooners by beating them in Morgantown on 11/23. NY6 Bowl at worst. </p>
<h4 id="k8y4kq">WVUIE97</h4>
<p id="qKilsK">The NC State game could likely define the season. That’s a weird sentence to type, but true. Struggle there and lose, you’re looking at 8-4, win 9-3. If we can throttle them and stay healthy, it could portend to something special this fall. Either way, this team should be fun to watch. Like Jake said, be sure to take it all in and enjoy it.</p>
<h4 id="QOzLtH">StatsBoyAndi</h4>
<p id="KPhR67">11-3; WVU finally gets over the hump and beats Oklahoma on Thanksgiving weekend to secure a spot in the Big XII championship, but loses the rematch a week later because that would be an extremely WVU thing to do. Will Grier gets to go to NY for the Heisman, but doesn’t win it. Our mentions are lit.</p>
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<h3 id="jus9uU">Where you think West Virginia will spend their winter break. Will we be playing in the Cheez-It Bowl? Or will the Mountaineers find themselves in a New Years Day game?</h3>
<h4 id="AAQDj9">Michael Miller</h4>
<p id="3pUqgq">Mountaineer fans will be partying on Bourbon Street to bring in 2019, as Big 12 champion West Virginia will find themselves on the outside of the College Football Playoff looking in. The Mountaineers will square off with the SEC runners up - a familiar <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/sugar-bowl">Sugar Bowl</a> foe, the <a href="https://www.dawgsports.com/">Georgia Bulldogs</a>.</p>
<h4 id="PTJ4u9">WVUNite</h4>
<p id="X3Mtup">West Virginia won’t finish undefeated, removing them from the playoff discussion but they will find themselves in the Sugar Bowl. We’re gonna have a sweet year, y’all. It could be even sweeter when they find out they have a chance to finish the year with an exclamation point by beating Alabama. </p>
<h4 id="MsJQKv">Nick Shoemaker</h4>
<p id="NO0JZW">If the Mountaineers make the College Football Playoff as I project, I imagine it will be by a somewhat slim margin. I predict WVU will get the fourth seed and face Clemson in the <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/orange-bowl">Orange Bowl</a>. Unlike the last time the Mountaineers faced Clemson in the Orange Bowl, I predict this game will be much closer.</p>
<h4 id="I1thv3">BartimusPrime</h4>
<p id="tDZHmI">Valero Alamo Bowl</p>
<h4 id="1Rp8XU">Robert Hurst</h4>
<p id="wn4cpC">One of the New Year’s Six</p>
<h4 id="UcbCio">Matt Kirchner</h4>
<p id="9CXy1f">Alamo Bowl</p>
<h4 id="U7p0BV">Jordan Pinto</h4>
<p id="sz0VID">NY6 at worst, but I’m holding out hope for Orange or Cotton. </p>
<h4 id="Ih2ZUF">WVUIE97</h4>
<p id="PY6sm8">Belk Bowl to open the season, personally, but I digress. Likely a New Years Six, either Sugar or Fiesta.</p>
<h4 id="OhYQdj">StatsBoyAndi</h4>
<p id="zXg6N0">The Sugar Bowl after OU slides into the playoff. </p>
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<h3 id="bf6oxT">How will the Big 12 Conference shake out? Will Oklahoma win for the 9,001st season in a row? Will Texas finally make their way back to the top of the conference? Will the Mountaineers play the spoiler and claim their first Big 12 Conference trophy?</h3>
<h4 id="lxcHyQ">Michael Miller</h4>
<p id="PxhpyA">I think by now you can tell I have us winning the Big 12 championship in a revenge game against the <a href="https://www.crimsonandcreammachine.com/">Oklahoma Sooners</a>. Here’s how the final standings will read:</p>
<p id="2sQY52">1. West Virginia Mountaineers (7-2)<br>2. Oklahoma Sooners (8-1)<br>3. <a href="https://www.frogsowar.com/">TCU Horned Frogs</a> (6-3)<br>4. <a href="https://www.barkingcarnival.com/">Texas Longhorns</a> (6-3)<br>5. <a href="https://www.cowboysrideforfree.com/">Oklahoma State Cowboys</a> (5-4)<br>6. Iowa State Cyclones (5-4)<br>7. <a href="https://www.bringonthecats.com/">Kansas State Wildcats</a> (4-5)<br>8. <a href="https://www.ourdailybears.com/">Baylor Bears</a> (2-7)<br>9. <a href="https://www.vivathematadors.com/">Texas Tech Red Raiders</a> (2-7)<br>10. <a href="https://www.rockchalktalk.com/">Kansas Jayhawks</a> (0-9)</p>
<p id="TSQu1r">Kansas and Texas Tech take a ride on the coaching carousel, and Iowa State (successfully) begs and pleads <span>Matt Campbell</span> to stay in Ames.</p>
<h4 id="oOHw56">WVUNite</h4>
<p id="ovyEm2"> West Virginia and Oklahoma will battle for the title. The Mountaineers will win in Morgantown but OU will win the conference championship game. The CCG victory propels the Sooners to the playoffs and the Mountaineers will take their consolation prize in the Sugar Bowl. </p>
<p id="KwcT2O">Texas and TCU will battle it out for third place while Texas Tech and Kansas State will struggle to reach .500. Kliff Kingsbury will be struggling to find a new job in 2019 while Matt Campbell begins to bump his head on the ceiling at Iowa State. 7 wins and a bowl game appearance are great but eventually that will not be enough. </p>
<h4 id="4l7duf">Nick Shoemaker</h4>
<p id="98ARJu">I predict that the Mountaineers will win both the regular season conference title and the conference championship game. My final ranking of the conference would be as follows:</p>
<p id="v4Thag">1. West Virginia<br>2. Oklahoma<br>3. TCU<br>4. Texas<br>5. Oklahoma State<br>6. Iowa State<br>7. Kansas State<br>8. Kansas<br>9. Baylor<br>10. Texas Tech</p>
<p id="CNMpi2">I predict WVU will face OU in back to back games (Senior Night and Big 12 Championship). I also predict the Mountaineers will win both games, but with a slimmer margin in the second matchup. I have WVU winning the Big 12 Championship game 48-45 in overtime.</p>
<h4 id="b1Ezfa">BartimusPrime</h4>
<p id="obIjM4">1. Oklahoma<br>2. West Virginia<br>3. Texas<br>4. TCU<br>5. Oklahoma State<br>6. Iowa State<br>7. Texas Tech<br>8. Kansas State<br>9. Baylor<br>10. Kansas</p>
<h4 id="05k0Gz">Robert Hurst</h4>
<p id="EUY38M">I’ve said before, you have to pick Oklahoma until someone proves otherwise. </p>
<h4 id="oVSnIj">Matt Kirchner</h4>
<p id="K9HBEo">1. Oklahoma<br>2. WVU<br>3. TCU<br>4. Oklahoma State<br>5. Iowa State<br>6. Texas<br>7. Kansas State<br>8. Baylor<br>9. Texas Tech<br>10. Kansas</p>
<h4 id="nfgmIP">Jordan Pinto</h4>
<p id="bv92ym">WVU TCU and Oklahoma clustered at the top with Texas, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Texas Tech and Kansas State falling in behind. Kansas and Baylor are going to struggle. </p>
<h4 id="MTQLru">WVUIE97</h4>
<p id="5X4zNO">As one of the commenters said, in a way, Death, Taxes and Oklahoma. Until someone other than a mediocre Texas team can beat Oklahoma on a regular basis, it’s their conference. TCU has a really good team that has a shot. As long as WVU stays healthy, we have a shot. It will take a truly magical season for WVU to win the conference but I’m telling you, Lloyd Christmas...there’s a chance.</p>
<h4 id="6ErWKX">StatsBoyAndi</h4>
<p id="iM8Svw">Oklahoma wins the title again (Death, taxes, Kansas basketball and OU football)</p>
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<h3 id="fLohPt">Is Will Grier leaving New York City as West Virginia’s first every Heisman Trophy winner? Will David Sills get robbed of the Biletnikoff Award like <span>Stedman Bailey</span>? Will any Mountaineer bring home an individual award at the end of the season?</h3>
<h4 id="fhKT0u">Michael Miller</h4>
<p id="93MdVF">Will Grier faces up uphill battle to win the Heisman, even as a preseason frontrunner, but his performance against Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game gives him the boost over Penn State quarterback Trace McSorely. West Virginia begins erecting a Grier statue outside Milan Puskar Stadium the following day.</p>
<p id="pEcUcK">Sills comes up just short of a Biletnikoff trophy again, and The Smoking Musket begins an investigation into the dirty back room dealings that are keeping Mountaineers with 25+ touchdowns and 1,000+ yards from winning the award.</p>
<p id="AOYsSS"><span>Yodny Cajuste</span> finishes as a finalist for the Lombardi Award.</p>
<h4 id="t9knZZ">WVUNite</h4>
<p id="B8LUzW">My heart says yes but my gut says no. I can’t tell you how much I want a Heisman for West Virginia. If Grier doesn’t win the Heisman, then I don’t see David Sills bringing home the Biletnikoff. I do think that <span>Yodny Cajuste</span> may surprise everyone when he brings home the Lombardi Award. Cajuste has all of the necessary tools to be a first round pick next year and if Grier has a good year it means that people are paying attention to Cajuste. </p>
<h4 id="KrrD24">Nick Shoemaker</h4>
<p id="b9Xewj">I think that three Mountaineers will come away with individual hardware at the end of this season. I predict that David Sills will be the nation’s top receiver and win the Fred Biletnikoff Award by a landslide. I also think that <span>Dravon Askew-Henry</span> will come away with the Jim Thorpe Award for being the most outstanding defensive back of the year. For Will Grier, I think he will win almost every award he possibly can, including the Heisman Memorial Trophy, Maxwell Award, Walter Camp Award, Davey O’Brien Award, and the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award. I think individual awards will also contribute to what I predict will be a historic season for WVU.</p>
<h4 id="6umvkG">BartimusPrime</h4>
<p id="kDBObI">David Sills wins the Biletnikoff</p>
<h4 id="w9yYBY">Robert Hurst</h4>
<p id="MhivTg">Grier wins the Davey O’Brien, but not the Heisman. </p>
<h4 id="HMgQsU">Matt Kirchner</h4>
<p id="ylZOLY">Will Grier makes it to New York but loses out to <span>Jonathan Taylor</span>, who rushes for a million yards on a playoff team.</p>
<h4 id="9pxozd">Jordan Pinto</h4>
<p id="NDY478">If we make it to the Big 12 Title, both of those guys will definitely have played well enough to earn invitations as finalists. Watch out for <span>David Long</span> as a dark horse for the Butkus, as well. </p>
<h4 id="2I0Szr">WVUIE97</h4>
<p id="riXLVS">As long as he stays healthy, the good Reverend Willy G will at least come home with a Unitas or Davy O’Brien. WVU might have a shot at two Biletnikoff finalists. Don’t be surprised if one of them is TJ Simmons. I think we have a shot a few other finalists as well: Cajuste, Long, et al.</p>
<h4 id="BenNhB">StatsBoyAndi</h4>
<p id="7tDQ2t">Will Grier gets the Davey O’Brien award for sure, Sills does not win the Biletnikoff. Josh Sills, through divine providence, wins the Piesman he so richly deserves. </p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="RBn8fg">
<h3 id="JKMcVa">Take a guess at what the College Football Playoffs will look like this season. Will the Big 12 make an appearance in the CFP? Will the SEC once again walk away with a National Championship? Will UCF or another G5 school find themselves in contention?</h3>
<h4 id="wtMHtE">Michael Miller</h4>
<p id="Lw4hhK">Alabama, Clemson, Washington, and *sigh* Ohio State</p>
<p id="7lSnV6">The Big 12 immediately regrets adding the 13th data point with the returning Big 12 Championship game, as Oklahoma’s loss to West Virginia knocks them out of the fourth playoff spot.</p>
<h4 id="idT0BT">WVUNite</h4>
<p id="e0ZPIh">Clemson, Georgia, Oklahoma, Washington. Clemson will take the #1 seed and beat the Sooners in the semis and Georgia on the finals. </p>
<h4 id="YpY5bb">Nick Shoemaker</h4>
<p id="TkAi6W">As I previously mentioned, I think the Orange Bowl semifinal matchup will be between Clemson and West Virginia, with Clemson as the first overall seed. I could see Washington, Notre Dame, and Wisconsin being a few of the bubble teams that the Mountaineers slide past to make it into the playoff. I predict WVU will come out on top in the semifinal with a 24-13 win. As for the <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/cotton-bowl">Cotton Bowl</a> semifinal, I predict it will be between Georgia and Ohio State, with Georgia as the two-seed. I think the Buckeyes will win 40-30. For the National Championship, I predict it will be the most stressful game in the history of Mountaineer sports, which I think is a very safe prediction if WVU is in that position in January. I also predict West Virginia will come out on top in an overtime thriller, 58-55, to complete the most historic season in Mountaineer football history.</p>
<h4 id="pdgfa6">BartimusPrime</h4>
<p id="7ApZEZ">Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, Washington</p>
<h4 id="5LgTTZ">Robert Hurst</h4>
<p id="bNYVc3">Alabama, Washington, Wisconsin and Georgia. The Tide over the Bulldogs in the National Championship game.</p>
<h4 id="Gdezr1">Matt Kirchner</h4>
<p id="P6U7Mi">Alabama, Wisconsin, Miami and Washington</p>
<h4 id="HNN3DF">Jordan Pinto</h4>
<p id="1gpSRS">Bama, Clemson, Ohio State, and.... West By God. At that point anybody has a shot. </p>
<h4 id="IsOira">WVUIE97</h4>
<p id="tc0Fhd">Georgia, Clemson, Oklahoma and either Wisconsin or Washington are your <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/a/march-madness-2018-ncaa-tournament">Final Four</a>. Any of the first three will win. I’m still not sold on the PAC12 or Big 10. IF we run the November gauntlet 4-0 and win the Big 12, it will be a crime worse than the whole Baylor/TCU exclusion from a few years back if we don’t get selected. Neither of those two teams faced what we will have to do this season.</p>
<h4 id="tLyDDG">StatsBoyAndi</h4>
<p id="xm5Otu">Bama, SEC SChool #2, Oklahoma, Clemson *yawn*</p>
https://www.smokingmusket.com/2018/8/24/17776964/smoking-musket-staff-predictions-2018-college-football-west-virginia-wvu-mountaineersMichael MillerWVUNiteMatt KirchnerBartimusPrimeNick ShoemakerJordan PintostatsboyandiRobert HurstWVUIE972018-08-23T07:30:02-04:002018-08-23T07:30:02-04:005 Stats That Will Define West Virginia's Season
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<img alt="West Virginia v Alabama" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/jjzg03lKsnMpWcS1v3pXaJTnXqk=/0x99:4248x2931/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/60988275/454396734.jpg.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Numbers certainly aren't everything, but looking at these five at the end of the year will probably give you a pretty good idea about how the Mountaineers' season went</p> <p id="jkLVCd">It's taken a while, but advanced analytics are now firmly a part of the mainstream football lexicon. Don't get me wrong - I can appreciate the beautiful simplicity of using something like total yards to compare two offenses, but that doesn't mean we have to ignore things like efficiency and explosiveness, right? Here are 5 such statistics that will tell the tale of our 2018 season. </p>
<p id="5sbie3"><strong>Explosive Play Differential</strong> </p>
<p id="ex4Wih">One idea that's gained widespread acceptance in recent years is the importance of explosive plays. Exactly what constitutes an explosive play seems to vary from team-to-team, but I define them as runs of 10+ yards and passes of 20+ yards, and West Virginia has traditionally been very good at generating them offensively ever since the mid-2000s. It's just a part of who we are. However, one thing that usually plays a big part in how our seasons play out is how good we are at preventing them. Just look at recent history - in 2012 we were our customary selves offensively, with <span>Geno Smith</span>, <span>Tavon Austin</span>, and <span>Stedman Bailey</span> headlining a group that created 137 explosive plays, but unfortunately our defense allowed 126, including a national worst 64 explosive passes, and we floundered to 7-6. Meanwhile, in 2016 <span>Skyler Howard</span> and Co created 150 explosive plays and surrendered just 106, and we won 10 games for just the sixth time in school history.</p>
<p id="qWF4y7">Considering that, you will rightly see that it's a problem when I tell you that we finished 2017 with an EPD of -12. Now admittedly, our explosive play generation took a nose dive after Will got hurt against Texas, but that still doesn't excuse the 133 that we gave up. That averages out to about 10 explosive plays that we allowed every game, or to break it down even further, almost 1 on every single possession. We actually weren't terrible against the pass (though we certainly weren't great either), but our 89 explosive runs allowed ranked 118th nationally. It's really hard to win when you're getting gashed like that. </p>
<p id="Ejd8ol">Looking ahead to 2018, I think we can safely assume that <span>Will Grier</span> and Co will again be among the nation's best in terms of creating explosive plays, but our defense has to figure out how to get better at preventing them, and particularly those backbreaking gains on the ground. Fortunately it sounds like we're on track to do just that. Word out of camp is that our defensive line is progressing very well, with a number of young guys receiving praise for their development and Tony Gibson even going so far as to say of <span>Dante Stills</span>, "In my 13 years here, I'd be hard-pressed to say that we've ever had [a freshman defensive lineman] like that." Transfers Kenny Bigelow (USC) and <span>Jabril Robinson</span> (Clemson) are reportedly the real deal, as well, and should bring some much needed leadership and experience to the group. We're not going to be Alabama, but if we can improve by even two or three explosive plays per game we'll be in much better shape defensively. </p>
<p id="Qel8OM"><strong>Toxic Differential</strong></p>
<p id="v2WUyS">It's long been accepted that winning turnover battles usually translates to winning games, but as I just mentioned, it's also more evident than ever that the same is true regarding explosive plays. Toxic Differential, a term coined by former Baltimore Ravens coach Brian Billick, attempts to combine both ideas by simply adding a team's Explosive Play Differential to its Turnover Margin.</p>
<p id="PbAee9"><em>Toxic Differential = (Big Plays For - Big Plays Against) + (Takeaways - Giveaways)</em></p>
<p id="D4LRfY">In 2017, Alabama led the country in Toxic Differential by a wide margin with an absolutely ludicrous +107 (based on my previously mentioned definitions), and coincidentally they won the National Championship. Their opponent in that game, Georgia, finished 3rd nationally with an extremely respectable +71. West Virginia finished at -19 (-12 EPD, -7 TO Margin). I've already covered how we can improve on the explosive play part of that equation, and I think we're in good shape there (especially offensively), but TO margin still needs to be discussed. </p>
<p id="vF65rI">West Virginia finished 2017 with a -7 turnover ratio, which was good for 105th nationally. Our defense was actually in the middle of the road in terms of forcing turnovers, but our offense was absolutely abysmal at preventing them, ranking 116th with 26 giveaways. We were particularly bad at not fumbling (12 lost, 107th nationally), and in my opinion that's the spot where we can (and need to) improve the most heading into 2018. </p>
<p id="GYxSkX">The good news here is that we might be better based simply on attrition. <span>Justin Crawford</span>, for all that he brought to the table, had an unfortunate knack for fumbling at inopportune times, and his graduation means that about a quarter of our fumbles have graduated, as well. Also gone is Chris Chuganov, who despite trying his best was definitely to blame for a fumble or three in his limited action. If we can trust Grier to take better care of the ball this year (and I'd like to think that we can), and if the skill guys can do their part in bringing that fumble number down to somewhere closer to the national average of 8 (and I'm going hope that they will), we've effectively eliminated about 1/3 of our turnovers. And if we can actually do that and finish with somewhere between 15-20 giveaways this year, we have a really good chance of at least breaking even in the turnover department, which, considering our offensive firepower, should put us on track for a very non-toxic year. I realize that's about thirty-seven "if's" in one hundred words, but remember that we won 10 games with <span>Skyler Howard</span> in large part because we played a relatively non-toxic brand of football (+37 in 2016); just imagine what we might do IF we can replicate that with Billy F'ing G..</p>
<p id="KK4TzD"><strong>Defensive Success Rate/Iso PPP/Havoc Rate</strong></p>
<p id="LsM1TF">The main point I've been trying to convey so far is that we need to both generate and limit explosive plays to be successful, but one question remains: how exactly do we do that, and what's the trade off? I’d like to share a passage <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/6/14/17437602/oklahoma-state-football-2018-preview-schedule-roster">from an article written by Bill C</a> over at the mothership, and give a shout out to my esteemed colleague <a href="https://twitter.com/NiteStare">Jake Lantz</a> for calling it to my attention:</p>
<p id="uG4uhu">"A few years into his tenure as Duke’s defensive coordinator, Knowles evidently said, 'You know what? Screw it. Attack.'</p>
<p id="EUgi5K">In 2014, Duke’s defense ranked 105th in success rate and third in IsoPPP explosiveness allowed, the prototypical bend-don’t-break profile. In 2017: 17th in success rate, 95th in IsoPPP.</p>
<p id="UgbBUX">Considering efficiency is the most important, repeatable thing in football, this was a net gain for the Blue Devils, even if it resulted in some gashes.</p>
<p id="M5lEFz">When you’ve got a prolific offense and can absorb the occasional gash, this aggressive approach can be devastating. If you can force an extra couple of three-and-outs or turnovers per game, that’s a service break the other team just can’t cope with. You just have to make sure you’ve got the athletes to turn aggression into production."</p>
<p id="lJ7igy"><a href="https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaadef">DSR, IsoPPP, and especially Havoc Rate</a> aren't necessarily indicative of how good or bad a team's defense is, but when examined together they can provide some pretty interesting insight into how each team weighs risk vs reward, as well as how aggressively they play - do they sell out to create chaos (strong success rate, weak Iso PPP), or are they content to bend but not break (weak success rate, strong IsoPPP)? There's obviously not a universally correct answer, but for a team with an offense like ours that can theoretically “absorb the occasional gash” as described above, it probably makes sense to be a bit more aggressive.</p>
<p id="rXSRil">The good news here is that we already tend to play that way, and generally do a pretty good job using our aggressiveness to keep teams off-schedule. Here are our Success Rate/IsoPPP/Havoc Rate splits over the past three years:</p>
<p id="nZPKAG">2015 - 34.1% Success Rate (8th); 1.43 IsoPPP (118th); 19.1% Havoc (17th)</p>
<p id="LfkPPV">2016 - 40.4% (46th); 1.28 (77th); 13.9% (97th)</p>
<p id="Oz0pac">2017 - 38.6% (38th); 1.27 (109th); 16.4% (57th)</p>
<p id="ypHfRc">The bad news, at least last year, is that we didn't wreak quite enough havoc to make that aggressiveness worth it. We simply gave up so many big plays that they mitigated the bad situations we were able to put teams in, and worse, when we gave up big plays, we gave up BIG plays (15 50+ yarders allowed, only four teams conceded more nationally). Our havoc production was particularly poor along the defensive line, which accounted for just 48% of our sacks and 30% of our TFL last year. Now I realize that our defense isn't necessarily set up for lineman to post huge numbers, and that 2017 was always going to be difficult due to consecutive years of high personnel turnover, but now that we appear to have a bit of talent and continuity we need to get back to where we were in 2015 with that Nwachukwu, Brown, and Rose group. If we can be marginally more disruptive up front, it'll go a long way towards getting our Success Rate back down into the mid-30's and our Havoc Rate back up closer to 20, and ultimately towards our defense exceeding expectations this year. </p>
<p id="8Ktd7l"><strong>Net Field Position</strong></p>
<p id="VC9pjI">BFCToys.com defines Net Field Position as "the difference between the average starting field position for the team’s offensive possessions (<strong>OFP</strong>) and its opponent’s offensive possessions (<strong>DFP</strong>) measured in terms of yards from the end zone." I'm sure you'll be shocked to find that most of college football's best and most consistent teams were at the top of the 2017 NFP rankings, and even more shocked to find that we're nowhere to be found. And honestly, even "nowhere to be found" undersells just how bad we were - we finished at -5.6 (124th out of 128 nationally) and came off worse in 8 of our 12 games against D1 competition. </p>
<p id="b0Z4CR">And unfortunately that's nothing new for us. In the Holgorsen era we've finished a season with a positive NFP just once (2016; seeing a recurring theme here?) and have finished the season ranked outside the top 100 in 4 out of 7 years. There are probably various things we could point to to try to explain that trend (bad hires, bad specialists, bad playcalling), but the fact of the matter is that if you're looking for somewhere to objectively criticize Holgs, look no further. </p>
<p id="rlFrIV">Fortunately though, that also means it's an area ripe for improvement, and even moving up from the basement to the middle of the pack would likely have a marked improvement on our record. Consider that <a href="http://www.bcftoys.com/sfp">BCFToys also has a tool</a> that charts the average points per possession of all drives based on starting field position using data from 2007-2017, and that the difference between starting on your own 27 (our average starting position in 2017) and your own 33 (our opponents' average) is about 0.2 points per possession. That may not sound like much, but over the course of a 20-30 possession game it could mean a difference of 4-6 points on average, and that's before you factor in any other single variable. I'm not saying we have to suddenly turn into a team that wins the field position battle by 10 yards per game or else, but if we can at least break even there and stop digging ourselves that 4-6 point hole before our regular units even step on the field, it'll go a long way towards a memorable 2018. </p>
<p id="pBNxZX"><strong>Net Points Per Drive </strong></p>
<p id="NbuF8m">If you're going to use one stat to compare teams in 2018, use this one. Simply put, NPD measures the difference between the number of points your offense scores every time it steps out on the field and the number of points your defense allows everytime they step out on the field, and there's not a better number out there for objectively evaluating two teams.</p>
<p id="EwdLni">For reference, the best teams in the country generally have an NPD somewhere between 1.5 and 2.0, but honestly if you're anywhere over 1.0 you probably had a really good season. According to BCFToys.com, we finished 2017 at -0.18 (2.28 points scored per offensive drive, 2.46 points allowed per defensive drive). I'm not going to go too far into what we need to do to improve here because if we make the stated improvements in these other areas then this one should take care of itself, but if we're anywhere over 1.0 by the time December rolls around we're going to be very happy with the way our season is going. </p>
https://www.smokingmusket.com/2018/8/23/17685090/west-virginia-mountaineers-wvu-football-five-stats-define-2018-season-previewJordan Pinto2018-08-22T07:30:01-04:002018-08-22T07:30:01-04:00No Matter What, Enjoy This Season
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<img alt="Ohio State V West Virginia" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4JHrDeAKT9tiP0ADhFVtgH5y0Ks=/6x0:3066x2040/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/60975135/72318126.jpg.0.jpg" />
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<p>In what could be a make-or-break season for many, my advice to you is enjoy it all</p> <p id="ChEM9e">We’re almost there fans. We are on the verge of what could be a historic season. The <a href="https://www.smokingmusket.com/">West Virginia Mountaineers</a> could be playing for their first Big 12 Conference Championship and if the cards fall right, a spot in the Playoffs. Some of you are going to say “One game at a time!” and some of you are going to hold onto the realism/pessimism to say “We won’t win more than 8 games”. I don’t blame you for whatever you need but I am here to tell you: ENJOY THIS SEASON. </p>
<p id="GqnGGk">The Mountaineers will enter the 2018 season with one of the best quarterbacks in the nation in Will Grier. Grier has brought national exposure to the Mountaineers. Every article this offseason has centered around just how talented Grier is and what he could do this season. That has to make you, as a fan, feel good that we are getting national love from everyone. Grier has even garnered serious Heisman consideration. His name is on the tip of everyone’s tongue when they talk about who is a Heisman contender. That means the state and the team are being plastered on television and national talk shows constantly. </p>
<p id="epTB3l">Enjoy this season where the Mountaineers have one of the best wide receivers in the country and maybe finally we can bring the Biletnikoff home to Morgantown. The national media may start the narrative about David Sills and being a former USC commit but it will always end with him being one of the best wide receivers in the nation and playing for the Mountaineers. Enjoy the chemistry he has with his quarterback. Enjoy how defenses always have to account for him and how it affects the entire offense, freeing up his other receivers. </p>
<p id="gguiRT">Enjoy this season with one of the best linebackers in both the Big 12 and the nation in <span>David Long</span>, Jr. Long could simply be named Mr.-Tackle-For-Loss or Mr. TFL and we, the fans, get to enjoy him. Long will be healthy to start the season and now armed with both an experienced defensive line in front of him and an experienced secondary behind him, Long could be in for a season where he makes his name nationally. Long will help make the entire defense better. Offenses will have to account for the tackling machine, freeing up other players to make plays. </p>
<p id="6gz8AC">Even if this season crashes and burns, enjoy this season. Enjoy the hype of the being ranked in both polls to start the season. Enjoy the hype of analyst after analyst after analyst talking about this team. This is only the third time in the last 30 years that the Mountaineers enter the season with larger than life aspirations. No matter what, enjoy this season. </p>
https://www.smokingmusket.com/2018/8/22/17762742/west-virginia-mountaineers-wvu-football-2018-season-enjoy-the-seasonWVUNite2018-08-21T07:30:02-04:002018-08-21T07:30:02-04:00West Virginia’s Path to the Big 12 Championship and Playoffs
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<img alt="NCAA Football: Big 12 Championship-Texas Christian vs Oklahoma" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/0mvt7J5qyLiLvARrexeBuxbm7bA=/147x0:3399x2168/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/60962073/usa_today_10457401.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Just how does West Virginia make this the best SZN ever?</p> <p id="CQ6aOM">So you wanna be a baller, shot-caller? You wanna ride high in that limousine? Then you have to handle your business, as they say. You have to put the work in and then execute when the time comes. For the <a href="https://www.smokingmusket.com/">West Virginia Mountaineers</a>, this 2018 season has the chance to be one of the magical seasons in program history but in order to do so, they will need to do certain things. </p>
<h3 id="c2rIUS">1. Stay Healthy</h3>
<p id="YtdrHx">More than anything else on this list, the health of the team is going to be paramount to how well the team does. Bill Connelly <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/6/7/17418580/west-virginia-football-2018-preview-schedule-roster">has stated</a> “WVU is going to start with a pretty awesome starting 22. There is star power at QB (Grier), WR (Jennings, Sills), OL (<span>Cajuste</span>), LB (Long), and safety (Askew-Henry, <span>Robinson</span>), and another batch of exciting transfers is arriving, too.</p>
<p id="lSAqCQ">You don’t usually keep your intended 22 on the field the entire year, though, and where the injury bug bites will determine much of WVU’s success. Depth issues are impossible to describe with certainty because we simply don’t know how much it will cost a team.”</p>
<p id="NFOVV6">Fans saw last year that when Grier went down, the house of cards completely fell apart. </p>
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<h2 id="schFli">2. Catch a Break</h2>
<p id="yNtmMl">The Mountaineers have been the king’s of wrong breaks at the wrong time, or more importantly not capitalizing on those breaks. Think back to last year when they opened up against Oklahoma State by causing back to back fumbles and knocking <span>Justice Hill</span> out of the game. How do you put the Cowboys down 14 and start imposing your will? </p>
<p id="TicaFi">Or think about the <a href="https://www.gobblercountry.com/">Virginia Tech Hokies</a> starting a freshman quarterback in his first game of the season against the 3-3-5. That is a game you should have confused and befuddled a young QB, not letting him run wild. It took two blown coverages to allow the Hokies to take a lead and forced us to play from behind. </p>
<p id="nsoPgR">If you want to make a serious run, you need breaks and you have to capitalize on those breaks. Don’t put yourself down where you need a score, fumble, score and onside kick recovery just to put yourself back in the game. </p>
<h3 id="wI9G1m">3. Get lucky in non-conference </h3>
<p id="ppwcRH">I don’t mean just win but you need the <a href="https://www.backingthepack.com/">N.C. State Wolfpack</a> and <a href="https://www.rockytoptalk.com/">Tennessee Volunteers</a> to be good. You need Tennessee to be at least bowl eligible, maybe even 7—5. N.C. State needs to contend for a divisional title. Doing so, and winning (the important part of this context), puts the Mountaineers in a great position at the end of the year. </p>
<p id="Ffp7SH">Oklahoma was the #2 seed last year in part because they beat THE <a href="https://www.landgrantholyland.com/">Ohio State Buckeyes</a> on the road. That road win puts a mark on your resume that not everyone has. It is a big gold star in the world of the playoffs, but that gold star only shines if the team you beat is worthwhile. While Alabama won’t get any gold stars because it doesn’t play a true non-conference road game, it’s Alabama. The Mountaineers needs NCSU to be darn good and the Volunteers to be serviceable. That would go a long way in boosting the Mountaineers resume. </p>
<h3 id="kAdrzC">4. Be at least .500 in November </h3>
<p id="LgoYiT">I could talk at length about how dangerous the Mountaineers November schedule is. Two road games to Austin and Stillwater. Hosting <a href="https://www.frogsowar.com/">TCU Horned Frogs</a> and Oklahoma. It is a gauntlet comparable to the 2015 October Death March. There is a good chance at least three of those teams are ranked when we play them. </p>
<p id="KZnCA9">For the Mountaineers, if they want to make the Big 12 title game, they can’t lose more than 2 conference games. Since joining the Big 12, the second-place finisher has no more than 2 losses and twice only had one loss. If the Mountaineers want to make a serious run at a conference championship game appearance, they have to finish the conference slate at 7-2 or better. The schedule sets up well for the Mountaineers to be 8-0 entering November but coming out of those four games, the Mountaineers must be 2-2. </p>
<p id="LawiC1"></p>
https://www.smokingmusket.com/2018/8/21/17755850/west-virginia-mountaineers-wvu-football-path-to-the-big-12-playoffs-national-championshipWVUNite2018-08-20T07:30:02-04:002018-08-20T07:30:02-04:00West Virginia Football Schedule Preview: Toughest Games
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<img alt="NCAA Football: Baylor at West Virginia" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/XM2VU4Di-feNXGbmkiKUXS_E-0U=/0x248:4767x3426/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/60943289/usa_today_9720971.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>While trap games are potential hazards, these games are definite hazards. </p> <p id="dXPSpX">We’ve already identified three potential games that <em>might</em> trip up the Mountaineers if they get caught looking ahead. That isn’t what we’re talking about now. Now we’re talking about man-up, snap those chipstraps, lace up those cleats games. These games are going to be slobberknockers. Knock-down, drag-out fights between two teams. </p>
<p id="q3mn3o"><em><strong>September 15, 3:30 PM, ESPN Family (ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU) at </strong></em><a href="https://www.backingthepack.com/"><em><strong>N.C. State Wolfpack</strong></em></a></p>
<p id="s5U3AR">It would be a real kick-in-the-balls for the Mountaineers to slip up against the Penguins in Week 2 and then fall again to the Wolfpack in Week 3 but that option is open if the Mountaineers don’t come ready to play. </p>
<aside id="SmNU2N"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"West Virginia Football First Look: NC State Wolfpack","url":"https://www.smokingmusket.com/2018/8/1/17593418/west-virginia-football-first-look-nc-state-wolfpack-wvu-mountaineers-ryan-finley"}]}'></div></aside><p id="QGYFYL">This week 3 matchup will be between two of the better quarterbacks in the nation: <span>Will Grier</span> and Ryan Finley. While WVU fans are familiar that Grier is being talked about as a potential first round NFL pick, the same can be said about Finley. Some mock drafts have him going towards the end of the first round. Finley has even been named a dark-horse Heisman contender so don’t sleep on the Wolfpack signal caller. </p>
<p id="vGGBFh">The defense under Dave Doeren has been solid and being at home could give NCSU enough of a boost to hold down <span>Will Grier</span>. </p>
<p id="PFZtrk"><em><strong>October 13 at </strong></em><a href="https://www.widerightnattylite.com/"><em><strong>Iowa St. Cyclones</strong></em></a></p>
<p id="GHV2Gy">Armed with a defense that took down a <span>Baker Mayfield</span> led Oklahoma in Norman and TCU, in Ames in 2017, the Cyclones are definitely going to be a tough test for the Mountaineers. Last years game was a tale of two halves. West Virginia scored 20 points in the first half, all within the first 25 minutes. They didn’t score the rest of the game. Iowa State countered, scoring 13 points in the second half but failed on a 4th and 7 that sealed the game. </p>
<aside id="X66fgy"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"West Virginia Football First Look: Iowa State Cyclones ","url":"https://www.smokingmusket.com/2018/8/5/17615108/west-virginia-football-first-look-iowa-state-matt-campbell-kyle-kempt-david-montgomery"}]}'></div></aside><p id="t1gkO6">The ‘Eers travel to Ames in the middle of October when the weather begins to turn cooler and teams need to rely on running the ball. Iowa State has one of, if not the, best running backs in the Big 12 in David Montgomery. Quarterback <span>Kyle Kempt</span> has experience and understands <span>Matt Campbell</span>’s system. </p>
<p id="USpVJ2"><em><strong>November 23, 8 PM, ESPN vs. </strong></em><a href="https://www.crimsonandcreammachine.com/"><em><strong>Oklahoma Sooners</strong></em></a></p>
<p id="1Xshze">In reality, any game in “Deathvember (TM)” could be on this list but the game against the Sooners is going to be the toughest one yet. The Sooners are loaded with talent, even if they are replacing one of the best quarterbacks to ever play at Oklahoma. The good news is that Oklahoma has to come to Morgantown. The bad news, the growing trend in this series. </p>
<p id="YZPMWZ">First off, West Virginia has never beaten the Sooners in Big 12 play. Second, the score differential has been growing year by year. When the ‘Eers had Tavon, they lost by 1 point. When they had <span>Paul Millard</span>, they lost by 9 points. When they had <span>Clint Trickett</span> and <span>Kevin White</span>, they lost by 12 points. <span>Karl Joseph</span>’s last collegiate game, they lost by 20. In the one time they had a chance at a Big 12 title they lost by 28. Last year, with <span>Kennedy McKoy</span> doing his best Wildcat, we stopped the trend and “only” lost by 28. </p>
<aside id="AT6rOw"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"West Virginia Football First Look: Oklahoma Sooners","url":"https://www.smokingmusket.com/2018/8/10/17669042/west-virginia-football-first-look-oklahoma-sooners-wvu-mountaineers-preview-2018"}]}'></div></aside><p id="hJksog">The other point, not talked about, is what this game could mean. On the one hand, WVU and Oklahoma are two of the programs expected to be in the hunt for the Big 12 title this season. Let’s say both teams go into the game knowing they are going to play in the Big 12 Championship. How do you approach this game if you know you have to play this same opponent the following week?</p>
<p id="Ejgqph">The bigger picture also includes the playoffs. If you are still in discussion of the playoffs, you <em>have</em> to win this game because you can’t take a week off. Losing in November only to win in December only works in the NFL. With a playoff committee full of humans, you can’t take a chance and lose. Imagine a scenario where WVU is forced to not only play their hardest because they have to keep their playoff hopes alive, but they already know they are going to play Oklahoma next week in the Championship. What do you do? </p>
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https://www.smokingmusket.com/2018/8/20/17732344/west-virginia-football-schedule-preview-2018-wvu-mountaineers-toughest-games-oklahoma-soonersWVUNite2018-08-19T07:30:01-04:002018-08-19T07:30:01-04:00West Virginia Football Schedule Preview: Trap Games
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<img alt="East Carolina v West Virginia" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/DU45psFWEaQwbON5IZ4geEVp1gM=/0x0:3000x2000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/60907707/844972176.jpg.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Certain games look like “sure-fire” wins and often aren’t that. We take a look at 3 games that could be potential roadblocks for the Mountaineers in 2018</p> <p id="BzkWCa">A trap game in college football is loosely defined as a game against a lesser opponent that is sandwiched between or directly before a “big-time” game such as against a rival or highly ranked opponent. The <a href="https://www.smokingmusket.com/">West Virginia Mountaineers</a> have experienced the ultimate trap game, the 2007 Backyard Brawl where the Mountaineers got caught looking ahead to a potential national championship game against <a href="https://www.landgrantholyland.com/">Ohio State Buckeyes</a> or <a href="https://www.rockmnation.com/">Missouri Tigers</a> but came out flat, didn’t make adjustments and ultimately ended the Rich Rodriguez era at WVU. </p>
<p id="F25zVY">We aren’t here to rehash that old tale, but to talk about 2018. 2018 has the chance to be special for West Virginia but if it is going to be special, the team will need to avoid the quote-unquote trap games. Let’s identify a few games that could be problematic for the team. </p>
<p id="sgV5la"><em><strong>September 8th vs Youngstown State Penguins</strong></em></p>
<p id="mKTK36">I know what you’re saying, how in the world is a FCS opponent ever considered a trap game. In reality, I don’t expect this game to be close but we are identifying “potential” trap games and this game fits the bill. It is in-between the season opener against the <a href="https://www.rockytoptalk.com/">Tennessee Volunteers</a> and a looming Top-15/20 showdown with <a href="https://www.backingthepack.com/">N.C. State Wolfpack</a>. The Mountaineers could be riding high if they handle the Volunteers and a big win against NCSU would go a long way in giving the Mountaineers a great out-of-conference record when the season ends and the playoff committee is debating the best four teams. </p>
<p id="qKegXJ">Youngstown State also isn’t exactly a pushover as Bo Pelini has developed that program to into a championship quality program. When the Mountaineers played the Penguins in 2016, the Penguins eventually made the FCS National Championship. </p>
<p id="V2duv3"><em><strong>October 25 vs </strong></em><a href="https://www.ourdailybears.com/"><em><strong>Baylor Bears</strong></em></a></p>
<p id="IJee2s">Many analysts, such as FoxSports and my ultimate man-crush Joel Klatt have often referenced that the Mountaineers could start the season 8-0. Doing so they would have to handle the Iowa State Cyclones in Ames the week prior to this game. This game is on a Thursday and that upsets the routine of teams. It also comes directly before the Mountaineers will begin “Deathvember”: a series of four straight games in November against the four best teams in conference. </p>
<p id="sYmU3u">The upcoming four games make the Baylor game dangerous. The hype for the Mountaineers should be real at this point in the season. Baylor, on the other hand, could start the season 4-0 and that might give this young team some confidence. They will have already played at Oklahoma and at Texas so the Bears will have experienced two tough atmospheres and could be ready for a primetime showdown. <span>Charlie Brewer</span> sliced the Mountaineer defense last year and now will have almost a full season’s worth of starts under his belt. </p>
<p id="WcLZj7"><em><strong>November 17 at </strong></em><a href="https://www.cowboysrideforfree.com/"><em><strong>Oklahoma State Cowboys</strong></em></a></p>
<p id="kcGbrJ">Oklahoma State is by no means a “lesser” opponent but this game is directly between a home game against the <a href="https://www.frogsowar.com/">TCU Horned Frogs</a> and the looming season finale against the <a href="https://www.crimsonandcreammachine.com/">Oklahoma Sooners</a>. Both the Sooners and Horned Frogs travel to Morgantown so this game is the last regular season road game of the year. It will be senior night for OSU. Some pundits are thinking Mike Gundy’s squad might not be as bad as originally thought despite the loss of <span>James Washington</span> and <span>Mason Rudolph</span>. </p>
<p id="a7Rm3J">Stillwater is a tough place to play and if the Mountaineers get caught looking ahead to “big brother” then little brother Oklahoma State could easily hand the Mountaineers a loss that could derail a special season. </p>
<p id="KOaS1L"></p>
https://www.smokingmusket.com/2018/8/19/17731364/west-virginia-football-schedule-preview-2018-wvu-mountaineers-trap-gamesWVUNite2018-08-18T07:30:02-04:002018-08-18T07:30:02-04:00West Virginia Football Position Preview: The Linebackers
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<figcaption>Photo by David Purdy/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>David Long is one of the best linebackers in the nation but he can’t do it all, can he? </p> <p id="hN4aft">According to ProFootballFocus, <span>David Long</span> was one of the best linebackers in the country. <span>Roquan Smith</span> of Georgia won the Butkus Award for best linebacker, yet David Long finished only decimal points in terms of grades behind Smith according to PFF. Linebackers can often get overshadowed in Tony Gibson’s 3-3-5 scheme since so much depends on the defensive line and the safeties. That isn’t the case with Long. </p>
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<h2 id="x8eadd"><em>THE STARTERS</em></h2>
<p id="m2AUha">The aforementioned David Long, Jr. is the weakside disrupter in this scheme. Long, standing only 5’-11” is a tad short for a weakside backer but you wouldn’t know it if you watched him play. Long has the instincts to diagnose a play the moment the ball is snapped, the speed to blitz the quarterback or play in coverage, and the tackling fortitude to garner 16.5 TFL (tackle for loss) despite playing only 8 games. Long suffered a meniscus injury and missed the first four games. Once he game back, he was a tackling machine, collecting over 8 tackles a game. </p>
<p id="Krhgy5"><span>Dylan Tonkery</span>, who helped fill in for Long during his absence, is set to take over the middle of this defense. Tonkery, only a sophomore, proved to be a quick learner and now with a starting position nailed down, will be expected to make the calls on the defense. Tonkery played all three positions last year and that experience will help him in knowing his defense. </p>
<p id="liM3pT">The strongside lineback looks like JUCO transfer Charlie Benton. Benton, as a redshirt freshman last season at Butler Community College finished second on the team with 10 TFL but also proved to be able to handle pass coverage. </p>
<h2 id="skvAxW"><em>THE BACKUPS</em></h2>
<p id="fYdNlU">As it seems to be, the Mountaineers suffered early injuries that threatened their depth. First Quondarius Qualls suffered a knee injury, then <span>Brendan Ferns</span> suffered another knee injury, his third in three years. The Qualls injury is especially devastating since Quon was pushing for a starting position or at least immediate backup. </p>
<p id="aAyxX2">Redshirt sophomore <span>Zach Sandwisch</span> will backup Tonkery in the middle. Sandwisch has now been in the program two years and its time to show what he can do. Sandwisch has the size to be an effective tackler and showed good coverage skills in high school. </p>
<p id="sk0Dv3">The backup strongside ‘backer position looks like it is up for grabs between <span>Adam Hensley</span>, <span>Shea Campbell</span> and Luke Williams. The injury to Qualls means the staff is going to rely on maybe a jack-of-all-trades player who can play both outside position rather than give a straight second unit. When analysts talk about lack of depth for the Mountaineers, this is a position that should concern fans. One injury to the starters could spell disaster. We saw last year when Benton was out during the VT game, Brendan Ferns took one misstep and it allowed <span>Josh Jackson</span> to sprint for a touchdown. </p>
<h2 id="1urBHt"><em>HIGHLIGHTS</em></h2>
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<p id="cWraPN">Credit: <a href="http://WVUSports.com"><strong>WVUSports.com</strong></a></p>
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https://www.smokingmusket.com/2018/8/18/17717518/west-virginia-football-wvu-mountaineers-position-preview-roster-2018-linebackers-david-longWVUNite2018-08-17T07:30:02-04:002018-08-17T07:30:02-04:002018 West Virginia Football Position Preview: The Defensive Line
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<img alt="NCAA Football: Delaware State at West Virginia" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/B58KS-yhZ-HIIjPicWEtlXKr0OA=/0x8:3845x2571/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/60874643/usa_today_10283476.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Mountaineer coaches are optimistic that a largely unproven D-Line could prove to be a strength this season.</p> <p id="EvwHnK">The West Virginia defensive line is intriguing this year. The unit has the potential to be very good and even reasonably deep, despite the fact that they will rely on youngsters to both start and add that ever coveted depth. The problem is that very little of that talent or depth has proven itself reliably on the field. <span>Lamonte McDougle</span>’s decision to transfer after a productive freshman campaign, as well as the departures of <span>Jaleel Fields</span> and <span>Adam Shuler</span> will at the very least impact depth if not production along the defensive line. </p>
<p id="wOCbx1">The two deep listed below doesn’t foretell the whole story of what is to come this season for the DL unit. Tony Gibson may have been being a bit facetious recently when he made comments that he would play four down lineman at a time in a 4-2-5 alignment, but it speaks to the apparent depth at one or both of the DL and LB positions. Regardless of if we ever see four big guys out there at once, the DL will need more than 6 viable options in the trenches.</p>
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<h2 id="kwEvLc"><em>THE STARTERS</em></h2>
<h3 id="KoQGcT">Nose Tackle</h3>
<p id="ZkREgQ"><span>Darius Stills</span> is a three star, in state prospect out of Fairmont. He’ll step into a starter role as a sophomore after spelling fellow freshman Lamonte McDougle last season, who has since transferred to Washington State. During the spring, the coaching staff was adamant that Stills was taking huge strides and developing into an impact player. As most know, Darius is the son of Mountaineer great Gary Stills, who was an All Big East standout before getting drafted in the third round and spending a long career in the NFL. The hope is that Darius, and eventually his brother Dante (who we’ll get to in a minute) will be able to replicate some of their father’s productivity. </p>
<h3 id="vzMBjC">Defensive End</h3>
<p id="vgRreG"><span>Ezekiel Rose</span> and <span>Reese Donahue</span> are listed as the top two ends. Before coming to Morgantown, Rose was featured on <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/last-chance-u">Last Chance U</a> on Netflix as a member of East Mississippi CC. Rose appeared in all 13 games for the Mountaineers in 2017 and started in three. Rose showed flashes of talent and athleticism a year ago. If he can just become more consistent it will go a along way to securing the weak side and hopefully providing some pressure on Big 12 quarterbacks. </p>
<p id="qgBsE8">Just a Junior, Reese Donahue was already appeared in 25 games and made 13 career starts. The Milton, WV native brings the most experience to his group of starters. Despite the experience, he has only managed to record 1.5 sacks in that action. While Donahue has proven to be reliable, he will need to make more of his time and up his production for the Mountaineer front to be successful. </p>
<h2 id="x6X7Cw"><em>THE BACKUPS</em></h2>
<h3 id="N4WP4f">Nose Tackle</h3>
<p id="ulG4Cp">As a redshirt senior, <span>Kenny Bigelow</span>, Jr transferred to Morgantown from USC. During his extended time playing college football, Bigelow has missed two full seasons and was was only able to appear in six before hanging it up last season. At 307, he’s the second biggest player on the D line roster, and should be able to help clog the middle if he can manage to stay on the field. </p>
<p id="NY38VK">While Dante Stills is not listed on the 2 deep above, the four star freshmen and brother of the aforementioned Darius is thought by many to be the future of the position at WVU. Stills was the number one ranked prospect in the state of West Virginia. He turned heads when he arrived on campus looking much more like a man than a boy, and has turned heads during workouts and practice. He needs to find ways to produce on the field as a freshman. Defensive Coordinator Tony Gibson has assured everyone in interviews that Dante will play, but to what extent, and maybe even at what position remain to be seen. </p>
<h3 id="W9SLhU">Defensive End</h3>
<p id="NXEDaD"><span>Jabril Robinson</span> and Jeffery Pooler, Jr are listed as the second string ends. Pooler got on the field in five games last season as a redshirt freshman and failed to register a stat. </p>
<p id="7rUy4y"><span>Jabril Robinson</span> is a graduate transfer from Clemson. While his production numbers aren’t awe-inspiring, he showed signs and saw the field on one of the deepest and most talented offensive line groups in the country. He is listed as an end for the Mountaineers, despite playing at one of the tackle spots in Clemson’s 4-3 scheme. Hopefully, once he learns his position, Robinson, who was buried behind unbelievable NFL talent and depth at Clemson, can better show off his own talent. </p>
<p id="tf4So7">Beyond that, even with excellent injury luck, others will have to prove viable. Only time will tell who it will be. </p>
<h2 id="of8rT2"><em>HIGHLIGHTS</em></h2>
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https://www.smokingmusket.com/2018/8/17/17696608/west-virginia-football-position-preview-wvu-mountaineers-defensive-line-roster-2018Robert Hurst