Three Things I Want Against Baylor

Sorry for the lack of articles this week. The family and I took a personal vacation over the weekend and I did not bring my laptop. I had thoughts on the game and if you find me on Twitter, you can see what I thought. Last week wasn’t good but it’s time for us to get over it and move on. So let’s find a way to “get-right”.

Second Half Doege

Here is a preview of something I’ve been working on this week. Neal Brown isn’t lying to you when he says that Jarret Doege played a hell of a second half against Texas Tech. The numbers bear it out. Doege averaged over 9 yards per play in the second half. He had a success rate of 55% over 5 drives covering 34 plays. On first down, Doege had a 66% success rate. Success rate on first down is 50% of the necessary yardage. Given that a typical first down is First and Ten, that means gaining at least 5 yards. If you thought the offense looked better in the second half, you can chalk it all up to the fact that the offense was winning on first down. On 8 of his 18 first downs in the second half, Doege gained at least 10 yards. That is the offense I want. That is the quarterback I want. Give me more second half Doege.

4th Quarter Defense

West Virginia has a very good defense. West Virginia does not have a very good fourth quarter defense. West Virginia has given up 397 yards, two touchdowns, and four field goals in the fourth quarter. They’ve engineered two stops - both against Virginia Tech - in nine tries. Teams have scored on seven of nine drives in the fourth quarter against the Mountaineers. It has cost the team at least two wins, against Oklahoma and Texas Tech and potentially against Maryland. It’s not fair to ask the defense to win the game but I do think its fair to ask the team to get a stop in the fourth quarter. Its how they won against Virginia Tech and its how they will need to win the rest of the year.

Turnovers

Baylor currently ranks 15th in the country with a +1.0 turnover margin. West Virginia ranks 122 with a -1.5 turnover margin. Baylor is generating one extra possession per game with turnovers and West Virginia loses a possession per game with turnovers. That means Baylor’s 49th scoring offense that is generating almost 30 points per game will have two more chances against the Mountaineers if we can’t generate turnovers. Its a critical component for a team boasting a defense capable of winning every game.