WVU Football: Can Mountaineers Return To Relevance?

Dana Holgorsen made an interesting comment near the end of last season regarding the status of WVU football.  The Mountaineers had just lost to lowly conference bottom feeder Kansas.  Holgorsen, in his press conference previewing the Iowa State matchup, answered questions in his typical manner.

It was the week of Thanksgiving, so a reporter asked Holgorsen this last question:

"What are you thankful for?"

Holgorsen responded with the following statement:

"I'm thankful for the seniors. I'm thankful for the Big 12. It's challenging, but we're relevant and we're learning a lot about ourselves as far as being in a power conference. We're going to be extremely competitive."

Holgorsen said that WVU football is relevant...but is it?

Eight or more wins in a season make a team relevant.

Bowl game wins make a team relevant.

Competing for conference championships make a team relevant.

Consider these facts:

• The 2012 Mountaineers collapsed midseason
• In 2013, the Mountaineers experienced their first losing season since 2001
• With last season's record, WVU broke a string of playing in eleven consecutive bowl games
• WVU has lost 14 of its last 20 games, including the Pinstripe Bowl to former rival Syracuse
• WVU is 6-12 in conference play since joining the Big 12

These facts have become common knowledge.  The 2013 season has been called a "bump in the road" by WVU coaches, players, local media and fans.

Yet, the facts suggest that WVU football has been anything but relevant.

Here is what has transpired at WVU since the 2008 season.

Relevancy Part One:  Putrid Defense

WVU Defensive National Rankings (out of 120 FBS teams)

	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Total Defense	36	36	3	33	109	101
Passing Defense	47	46	11	35	118	106
Rushing Defense	40	37	2	55	60	90
Scoring Defense	11	31	3	16	115	99
Sacks	58	45	2	29	75	107

From 2008 to 2011, WVU won games with defense. Not anymore.  WVU's defense over the last two seasons has become the laughingstock of the college football world.  The 2013 defense hardly fared better than its 2012 counterpart. 

Injuries certainly played a part in another dismal defensive performance.  However, other factors led to ineffectiveness.

Coaches struggled to make in-game adjustments.  Fatigue and the lack of will to compete in the second half of numerous games allowed those winnable games to slip away.

Things became so bad that at the end of the year, WVU's defense allowed two redshirt freshman quarterbacks who had never started a collegiate game to lead their teams (Kansas and Iowa State) to victories.  Iowa State's offensive coordinator was fired for poor performance the day after his offense surged in the fourth quarter to send the game into overtime and eventually beat WVU.

WVU lost to a team that fired its offensive coordinator the very next day.

That's how bad things had become for WVU football.

Excuses are often made that "WVU is in a real football conference now" and "no one plays defense in the Big 12."

However, relevant Big 12 teams play defense.  The following table demonstrates that defense still wins football games.  These stats also come from ncaa.com.

2013 Big 12 Defensive National Statistical Rankings

Team	Scoring	Total	Passing	Rushing	3rd Down	Red Zone
Oklahoma State	19	52	79	32	7	7
Oklahoma	22	20	30	25	18	87
Kansas State	31	26	48	27	76	116
Baylor	36	28	34	38	19	22
TCU	54	24	58	21	32	70
Texas	57	68	53	83	43	92
Texas Tech	87	84	39	98	22	69
Kansas	93	96	78	89	75	80
WVU	99	101	106	90	92	65
Iowa State	108	105	75	112	54	38

Nationally, WVU ranked at or near the bottom of every major defensive statistical category in 2013.

Relevant teams like Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Baylor all held high positions nationally on defense.  TCU proved that defense alone cannot win games, and Texas Tech (much like WVU in 2012) proved that offense alone does not win every game.

WVU, Kansas and Iowa State served as conference bottom feeders due in part to poor defensive preparation and execution.

Relevancy Part Two:  Average Offense

WVU Offensive National Rankings (out of 120 FBS teams)

	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Total Offense	59	61	67	15	10	62
Passing Offense	104	90	67	6	10	34
Rushing Offense	15	24	50	92	52	82
Scoring Offense	73	67	78	14	9	79
Sacks Allowed	27	57	71	65	48	85

Holgorsen's gifted mind has been challenged since the departure of Geno Smith, Stedman Bailey and Tavon Austin. Holgorsen was brought to WVU because the offense had languished under coordinator Jeff Mullen's tutelage.  Yet, the 2013 season statistically demonstrated that WVU's offense had returned to the days of Jeff Mullen - of being simply average.

One factor surrounding WVU's offensive struggles is Holgorsen's decision making.  Three issues stand out from 2013.

First, Holgorsen didn't effectively utilize his best offensive player until late in the season.  Holgorsen wisely brought former Houston running back Charles Sims to WVU for his senior season.  Sims was a great addition to the team and will be a future NFL star.  However, Sims was not targeted nearly enough as an offensive weapon until the TCU game late in the season.

Second, Holgorsen had never believed in rotating quarterbacks in his previous 20 years as an offensive specialist - until 2013.  One of the worst decisions Holgorsen made was pulling quarterback Paul Millard after the loss to Oklahoma in Norman.  With this decision, Holgorsen began a carousel of starting quarterbacks - first Ford Childress, then Clint Trickett, then back to Paul Millard, then back to Clint Trickett - that most likely caused continuity problems, led to confidence problems and made all three quarterbacks wonder when they would be benched.  This must be one of the reasons why Holgorsen chose Trickett as his starter before preseason camp.

Finally, Holgorsen's game day decision making caused WVU fans everywhere to moan and groan.  Holgorsen demonstrated stubbornness last season that made little sense.  He stuck with Ford Childress in the Maryland game despite Childress clearly not being able to throw the ball past the line of scrimmage.  Holgorsen gambled and lost against Baylor on fourth down in Mountaineer territory early in that game, allowing one of the worst routs in WVU history to commence. In close games with WVU maintaining a lead, Holgorsen allowed his quarterbacks to pass the ball against Texas and Iowa State late in the fourth quarter.  WVU could not get a first down against Texas with just over a minute remaining in that game.  Against Iowa State, Trickett threw an interception at WVU's own 29 yard line with less than three minutes to play.  Both decisions allowed the opposition to send these games into overtime.

Relevancy Part Three:  Poor Special Teams Play

WVU Special Teams National Ranking (out of 120 FBS teams)

Special Teams	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Net Punting	2	11	36	101	110	7
Punt Returns	76	44	56	20	28	119
Kickoff Returns	55	61	108	26	93	112

Over the last two seasons, WVU's special teams have been anything but special.  Other than individual performances from Tavon Austin and Nick O'Toole , aka Boomstache, special teams have failed the Mountaineers.  Lack of depth has also hurt this area of the program.  Special teams coach Joe DeForest has his work cut out for him.

Further Proof Of A Decline In Relevance

Respected USA Today columnist Jeff Sagarin's ratings for WVU football from 2008 thru 2013 further prove the decline in relevance.

Sagarin Rankings for WVU Since 2008

	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Overall Ranking	26	32	36	22	48	74
Strength of Schedule Ranking	47	31	60	57	29	33

Note the deterioration since 2011.  Also notice that WVU played a similarly difficult schedule in 2009 when WVU went 9-4, losing at Auburn, at South Florida, at #5 Cincinnati and to Bobby Bowden's Florida State squad in the Gator Bowl.

The Big 12 has presented WVU with greater scheduling challenges on a weekly basis.  However, WVU could never expect to play "average" and defeat a quality opponent.  In 2011, remember that Holgorsen's 10-3 squad lost at #86 ranked Syracuse and then to #61 ranked Louisville at home.

Recall how WVU played an "average" game with a chance at the national championship on the line in 2007.

The point is this - WVU gets beat when it plays an "average" game, no matter who the head coach is.

For comparison purposes, look at Sagarin's ratings over the past six years for former Big East opponents.

WVU-Former Big East Conference Opponents Comparison

	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
WVU's Sagarin Ranking	26	32	36	22	48	74
Strength of Schedule Ranking	47	31	60	57	29	33
Louisville Ranking	92	87	51	61	27	20
Strength of Schedule Ranking	81	25	75	60	70	103
UConn Ranking	40	28	56	76	89	121
Strength of Schedule Ranking	53	34	65	64	69	69
Rutgers Ranking	37	41	90	36	53	100
Strength of Schedule Ranking	73	86	67	69	72	80
USF Ranking	43	39	44	59	86	143
Strength of Schedule Ranking	71	59	71	62	46	65
Cincinnati Ranking	34	8	67	30	36	67
Strength of Schedule Ranking	60	44	35	73	80	111
Pitt Ranking	27	16	32	69	59	55
Strength of Schedule Ranking	25	40	38	48	57	37
Syracuse Ranking	104	83	48	86	38	62
Strength of Schedule Ranking	34	36	73	55	45	57

The UConn, Rutgers and USF programs began a steep decline following the breakup of the former Big East conference.

Louisville continued to improve under Charlie Strong.  With his departure, it will be interesting to see what happens to the Cardinals this season.

Much like WVU, Cincinnati took a step back in 2013.

Pitt stabilized as an average team.

And Syracuse continued to be the model of inconsistency.

Now look at WVU's Big 12 opponents over the last six years.

Big 12 Conference Teams' Sagarin Rankings Over The Last Six Years

	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Oklahoma Ranking	3	17	10	4	12	12
Strength of Schedule Ranking	7	22	20	6	5	32
Oklahoma Ranking	20	40	11	3	17	13
Strength of Schedule Ranking	43	49	44	3	28	22
Kansas State Ranking	74	68	59	19	8	23
Strength of Schedule Ranking	62	66	61	8	14	34
Texas Ranking	4	3	64	17	16	33
Strength of Schedule Ranking	14	38	47	5	12	11
Baylor Ranking	66	80	61	13	18	9
Strength of Schedule Ranking	17	18	46	10	7	48
TCU Ranking	7	4	4	20	32	48
Strength of Schedule Ranking	69	60	76	86	16	16
Texas Tech Ranking	9	25	43	53	37	30
Strength of Schedule Ranking	27	62	53	11	36	42
Iowa State Ranking	114	66	65	43	55	72
Strength of Schedule Ranking	51	71	24	2	11	23
Kansas Ranking	31	62	119	91	98	119
Strength of Schedule Ranking	39	53	48	1	3	28

Oklahoma and Oklahoma State have been model programs for all collegiate teams to imitate.  Superb coaching and talent have combined to bring these schools success.

Kansas State and Baylor have significantly improved over the last three years.  Bill Snyder and Art Briles prove that coaching matters.

Texas and Texas Tech have remained solid programs that have struggled recently with consistency.  Both programs have hired new head coaches (Charlie Strong and Kliff Kingsbury) over the last two seasons in an attempt to bolster their teams.

TCU is looking to improve its offense in order to compete in the Big 12.  Head coach Gary Patterson hired Sonnie Cumbie and Doug Meacham from offensive minded programs Texas Tech and Houston to do just that.  Look for TCU to be much improved on offense this season.

Iowa State is a mediocre, but improving program.  It is struggling to gain relevance.

Finally, Kansas has become the conference doormat.

The 2013 season found WVU joining TCU, Iowa State and Kansas at the bottom of the Big 12 conference.  Over the last 20 matchups, WVU has played average games on offense and well below average games on defense.  That is a recipe for disaster and clearly must stop for WVU to halt its slide into irrelevance.

Prognosis

A 7-6 season followed by a 4-8 season does not make WVU football relevant.  Fielding one of the worst defenses in football over the last two years does not make WVU football relevant.

Holgorsen had this to say about last season in his latest press conference.

"It was miserable... I don't anticipate those dynamics ever happening again, in the next 30 years of coaching or however long I am fortunate enough to be able to coach. You have three new coaches that have never been with us before. We had the issues at the quarterback position that have been very well documented. You had six or seven skill kids that have been in the program for their first year. That's just a dynamic that is not good. I thought we did a pretty good job up front of holding it together with some older guys, but the timing, the continuity, the chemistry just wasn't there. Looking back on it, you sit there and you study what you did and what the plays are and try to make some changes - which we do every year. With that said, I think we are way ahead of where we were a year ago. Time will tell on how it is."

Indeed, this team has the potential to make everyone forget about the last two seasons.

Defensively, Mountaineer fans should anticipate an exciting season.  New defensive coordinator Tony Gibson is in his ninth campaign at WVU, where he coached for seven seasons under nationally acclaimed defensive coordinator Jeff Casteel.  Gibson has brought a version of Casteel's 3-3-5 stack defense back to Morgantown.

In late February, Oliver Luck hired long time defensive coaching specialist Tom Bradley.  The former Penn State veteran brings 34 years of experience to WVU.  Bradley's resume is truly impressive.  He helped coach Penn State to two national championships and 27 bowl games.  Bradley earned two defensive coordinator of the year awards (2005 and 2008).  He coached 17 All-Americans and 39 future NFL players on defense.

This season's Mountaineer defense returns seven starters, including 2014 Preseason All-Big 12 defensive back selection Karl Joseph.  Lindy's Sports nationally ranks the Mountaineer linebackers as its sixth best unit.

WVU's defense possesses quality coaching, depth, talent and experience everywhere except the defensive line.

If Gibson and Bradley can get consistent, quality play from an inexperienced defensive line, then this defense could be stout.

After a two year hiatus, defense returns to Morgantown.

Offensively, six starters return.  The offense also has more depth and experience.  Numerous players received lots of game time, particularly across the line and at the skill positions.

Questions remain regarding whether Trickett and the offense - with a full year in Holgorsen's "air raid" system - possess the talent required to turn experience into effectiveness.  Reducing turnovers and taking advantage of the opportunities that the Mountaineer defense gives the offense would go a long ways toward returning WVU football to relevancy.

WVU should be competitive in almost every game.  Towson, at Maryland, Kansas, at Oklahoma State, TCU, Kansas State and at Iowa State should be winnable games.  Losses to Alabama, Oklahoma, Baylor, at Texas Tech and at Texas should not be cause for alarm.  Seven wins would get WVU to a bowl game.

Time will tell if Mountaineer football returns to relevance.  Returning to post-season play and winning eight games would be a decent start.

As always,

Let's Go, Mountaineers!