WVU Football: Five “Must Improve” Areas On Offense - Quarterback Play

This is the second in a series of five articles that discuss WVU's offense.  This article is devoted to quarterback play.

2013 Quarterback Play:  Woeful Production

By any measurement, last season's quarterback production was below average for both Dana Holgorsen and WVU.  College football fans are used to seeing Holgorsen coached quarterbacks such as Cody Hodges, Graham Harrell, Case Keenum, Brandon Weeden and Geno Smith put up nationally leading passing numbers.  Last year, Holgorsen started three quarterbacks over the course of the season that played like back-ups to the above list of talented quarterbacks.

Here are last season's woeful production numbers.

2013 Quarterback Production

Quarterback	Attempts	Completions	Comp %	Yards	TDs	INTs	3rd Down Comp %	Rating
Trickett	233	123	53	1605	7	7	45	114.6
Millard	167	92	55	1119	6	6	61	116.0
Childress	63	36	57	421	3	3	47	119.5
Totals	464	251	54	3145	16	16	50	115.5

Cause and Effect

Low completion percentages, particularly on third down, and missed opportunities in the red zone primarily drove last season's deplorable quarterback play.

WVU's offense really struggled to sustain drives due to third down completion rates, as WVU quarterbacks completed only half of their third down attempts - 63 of 125.  Of the 63 completions, only 40 led to first downs.  In other words, when WVU passed on third down last season, the offense continued drives only 32% of the time.

Trickett particularly struggled on third and greater than four yards to gain, as he completed only 23 of 59 attempts for 39%.  Only 16 of those completions resulted in first downs.  Trickett sustained drives only 27% of the time.

In their 2014 college football preview, Athlon Sports aptly wrote "Last season's WVU offense was the antithesis of a normal Dana Holgorsen unit.  The recurring theme was "three-and-out," as the Mountaineers ranked 113^th in third-down conversions."  Ouch.

In the red zone, WVU quarterbacks played equally as bad.  They combined to complete only 17 of 41 attempts for a dismal 41 percent with eight touchdowns and one interception.  Trickett completed only 10 of 25 attempts inside the red zone for 40%.  He did, however, throw five touchdowns with no interceptions. Millard threw only three touchdowns and one interception in the red zone.

Trickett, Millard and Childress also played like back-ups because they threw as many interceptions as touchdowns over the course of the season.

WVU Quarterback Play:  A History of Recent Success

For comparison purposes, here's how 2013 stacked up to the last thirteen years in Morgantown.

WVU's Passing Attack Since 2001

Year	Starting Quarterback	Attempts	Completions	Comp %	Yards	TDs	INTs	3rd Down Comp %	Rating	W-L
2013	Multiple	464	251	54	3145	16	16	50	115.5	4-8
2012	Smith	532	374	70	4285	44	7	61	162.6	7-6
2011	Smith	542	353	65	4509	32	9	63	151.2	10-3
2010	Smith	382	245	64	2769	24	8	59	141.6	9-4
2009	Brown	347	220	63	2484	12	10	67	129.2	9-4
2008	White	305	202	66	1956	22	8	57	138.7	9-4
2007	White	265	176	66	2067	16	6	59	147.3	11-2
2006	White	233	149	64	2059	15	8	n/a	152.6	11-2
2005	White/Bednarik	193	122	63	1398	12	7	n/a	137.3	11-1
2004	Marshall	259	149	58	1993	20	11	n/a	139.2	8-4
2003	Marshall	252	129	51	2034	19	8	n/a	137.5	8-5
2002	Marshall	279	148	53	1753	11	9	n/a	112.4	9-4
2001	Lewis	357	192	54	1811	9	19	n/a	94.1	3-8

WVU has been fortunate to have had talented quarterbacks such as Geno Smith, Pat White, Rasheed Marshall and Jarrett Brown over this time span.  Quarterback production has been worse than the 2013 season on only two occasions - 2001 and 2002.

It's no coincidence that WVU football sustained highly successful seasons over this period.  When WVU's quarterbacks completed 60% of their passes (58% in 2004), WVU possessed a winning record nine consecutive seasons.  When WVU's quarterbacks completed only around 50% of their passes, then WVU possessed a winning record only two out of four times (2002 and 2003).

The Pass Happy Big 12:  Haves and Have Nots

Compared to the rest of the Big 12, here's how poorly WVU's quarterbacks struggled last season.

2013 Big 12 Conference Quarterback Production (conference rank in parentheses)

Team	Att	Comp	Comp %	Yards	TDs	INTs	3rd Down Comp %	Rating	W-L
Baylor	448	277	62 (3)	4668	35 (1)	6 (1)	56 (3)	172.5 (1)	11-2
Kansas State	314	197	63 (1)	2469	18 (6)	9 (2)	57 (2)	155.7 (2)	8-5
Texas Tech	714	453	63 (1)	5107	35 (1)	18 (10)	58 (1)	134.7 (3)	8-5
Oklahoma State	484	280	58 (5)	3603	26 (3)	13 (5)	47 (8)	132.7 (4)	10-3
Oklahoma	383	225	59 (4)	2588	24 (4)	11 (3)	52 (5)	130.5 (5)	11-2
Texas	431	246	57 (6)	2762	18 (6)	15 (7)	53 (4)	117.7 (6)	8-5
Iowa State	415	232	56 (8)	2630	19 (5)	14 (6)	45 (9)	117.5 (7)	3-9
WVU	464	251	54 (9)	3145	16 (8)	16 (8)	50 (6)	115.5 (8)	4-8
TCU	419	240	57 (6)	2715	14 (9)	17 (9)	49 (7)	114.6 (9)	4-8
Kansas	329	154	47 (10)	1685	9 (10)	12 (4)	44 (10)	91.6 (10)	3-9

WVU ranked near the bottom in third down completion percentage (6^th), touchdowns (8^th), interceptions (8^th), quarterback rating (8^th), and completion percentage (9^th).

Quarterback play definitely factored into the win-loss record of each conference team.  Of the five teams that had a 130 or higher quarterback rating, all five had winning records.  Of the five teams that had lower than a 120 quarterback rating, only one possessed a winning record (Texas).

Six of eight teams that completed greater than 55% of their passes had winning records (TCU and Iowa State did not).  WVU and Kansas completed less than 55% of their pass attempts...and both finished the season with losing records.

All five teams completed greater than 50% of their passes on third down.  All five teams possessed winning records.  Only one of five teams, Oklahoma State, finished the season with more wins than losses after completing less than 50% of their passes on third down.

Diagnosis

In 2013, WVU's quarterbacks struggled primarily for at least five reasons.

First, all three quarterbacks lacked starting experience for WVU.  That's what happens when an NFL caliber player like Geno Smith runs the offense for three years.

Clint Trickett had limited starting experience at Florida State before transferring to WVU.  As a redshirt freshman in 2011, Trickett took over the Seminole offense for two games after EJ Manuel injured his shoulder.  Trickett's first start was a successful outing against Clemson (no doubt), where he went 24 for 38, 336 yards, 3 TDs and only 1 INT.  However, Trickett was quickly pulled after his start at Wake Forest went poorly (6 of 11, 29 yards, 2 INTs).  EJ Manuel replaced Trickett in that Wake Forest game. Trickett never started the rest of his Florida State career.

Second, the offense lacked experience - particularly at the skill positions.  WVU only returned two starters from 2012.  Both were linemen.  All skill position players, with the exception of Ivan McCartney, had never started for WVU.  Houston transfer and now NFL running back Charles Sims could not be a one man show.  Meanwhile, junior college transfers Dreamius Smith, Mario Alford and Kevin White saw their first FBS action.

Third, the offensive line, combined with an inexperienced backfield, failed to protect WVU's quarterbacks.  The offense allowed 28 sacks.  Millard, Trickett and Childress often lacked the time needed to find open receivers.

Fourth, accuracy issues plagued the Mountaineer quarterbacks.  Part of the accuracy issue certainly resulted from injuries to both Trickett and Childress.  However, all three quarterbacks were wildly inaccurate - particularly Trickett, who overthrew receivers by five plus yards even when he was healthy. As mentioned earlier, Trickett only connected on 36% of his attempts when faced with third down and four or more yards to gain.  Millard was the only quarterback to throw for over 50% on third down.  He threw for 61%.

Finally, coaching most likely affected quarterback play.  Holgorsen made a terrible decision to pull Millard (and insert Childress) as the starting quarterback after the Oklahoma game.  That decision had to have rattled all three quarterbacks' confidence - and the team's confidence in their quarterbacks.  Holgorsen's mistimed decision began a carousel of revolving starters.  It most likely left the perception that whoever started had to be "Geno-esqe" - or be pulled the next game.  All three quarterbacks began looking over their shoulder - not only for opposing defenders - but for Holgorsen himself.

Prognosis

This season, both Trickett and Millard possess starting experience in Dana Holgorsen's offense.  They are both seniors.  Holgorsen named Trickett the starter in late June.  This decision may bolster both Trickett's confidence and the teams' confidence in him.  Trickett certainly needs the reps as he missed spring ball.  True freshman William Crest will most likely redshirt.  Logan Moore and junior college transfer Skyler Howard could see limited playing time.  The offense will depend upon Trickett and Millard to lead the way.

At Big 12 Media Days in Dallas, Holgorsen made the case that Trickett "has far greater knowledge of the system" this year.  Holgorsen further went on to say that Trickett has now "built the communication needed with his receivers."

Lots of improvements have to happen.  The offense must better protect the quarterback.  Trickett certainly has potential.  Remember his game against Clemson.  With additional time to stay in the pocket, Trickett's accuracy and completion percentages potentially could go up.

Both Trickett and Millard must overcome their accuracy issues.  Remember, Millard threw for 61% on third down.  It will be interesting to see how long Holgorsen stays with Trickett as the starter if he continues to struggle.  Holgorsen could also choose to go to a platoon system - much like coach Bill Snyder used at Kansas State last season - where Millard plays on select third downs if Trickett's accuracy fails to progress.

WVU's offense returns six starters and plenty more experience as the Mountaineers begin their third Big 12 campaign.  This experience needs to translate into greater offensive production.

If most of these things happen, then the Mountaineer's prospects for a winning record greatly improve.

Tomorrow's article discusses offensive efficiency.

As always,

Let's Go, Mountaineers!

Series Links:

1.       Offensive Line Play

2.       Quarterback Play

3.       Efficiency

4.       Red Zone Efficiency

5.       Turnovers

*Information/stats for this article come from the following sources:  wvusports.com, cfbstats.com, ncaa.com, WVUStats.com, philsteele.com, espn.go.com, Phil Steele's 2014 College Football Preview, Lindy's Sports College Football 2014 Preview, Athlon Sports College Football 2014 National Edition, and USA Today Sports 2014 College Football Preview.