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Fanshawe's Degenerate Gambler's Poll - Bowl Game Edition


The poll above is a creation of mine. I've been tinkering with it over the last few years. The reason I call it the Gambler's Poll is that I arrive at each team's point total by factoring together the several statistical elements that I favor most in college handicapping. Among them are yards-per-point differential, yards-per-play differential, and Sagarin schedule strength. Each category is weighted, with more emphasis being placed on yards per point differential and schedule strength. Unlike the purpose of the BCS poll, which is to figure out a 1 vs. 2 matchup (note mine would have been different!), this poll is meant to be a quick guide for the gambler. The higher ranked team in a bowl matchup should not only win, but cover, so long as the line isn't egregiously out of whack. You will note that only 30 teams are ranked. That is because in the past, matchups involving teams lower than 30th have not done well against the spread.

I wish I had the time to put this poll together each week, but it is overly time consuming since the metrics I use (other than Sagarin) are not posted for me anywhere. My wife and I compile them each week. Please remember that I post this only for fun. In no way am I, or The Smoking Musket, encouraging anyone to gamble.

After Bowl Season, I'll post a wrap-up to see how the poll does this year. It has never been worse than 59% against the spread. Incidentally, Clemson was 53rd in the poll, so confidence is high for the Orange Bowl! Let's Go Mountaineers!