Well Received? A Comparison Of Stedman Bailey, Tavon Austin, Alec Lemon, And Mohamed Sanu
The season is over, the votes have been calculated, and the preseason awards will be unveiled in short order. With the prolific passing attack unveiled by Dana Holgorsen this year, WVU QB Geno Smith and his receivers figured to feature prominently in the league leaders in passing and receiving. Fortunately for WVU, dreams of a wide open passing attack came to fruition, as Stedman Bailey and Tavon Austin both eclipsed the WVU record for receiving yards in a season and Austin set a new mark for total receptions. But the pair does not sit alone atop the Big East statistical leaderboard for receiving. They are joined by Rutgers junior Mohamed Sanu and Syracuse junior Alec Lemon. At the close of the regular season, the stats shake out like this:
Bailey - 67 receptions for 1197 yards and 11 TD for an average of 17.9 YPC
Austin - 89 receptions for 1063 yards and 4 TD for an average of 11.9 YPC
Lemon - 68 receptions for 834 yards and 6 TD for an average of 12.3 YPC
Sanu - 109 receptions for 1104 yards and 7 TD for an average of 10.5 YPC
Given those stats, who should be selected for Big East postseason honors? Bailey is clearly the big-play guy out of the group, but also caught the fewest balls. Austin has the second most receptions, but fewer yards per catch. Sanu catches a lot of balls and scores touchdowns, but has the fewest yards per catch. Lemon is pretty solid across the board. So it's hard to distinguish, so let's take a game-by-game look.
Stedman Bailey:
Tavon Austin:
Alec Lemon:
Mohamed Sanu:
For quick reference, because I know you're going to ask, here are the NCAA passing defense rankings for this year. For teams that appear on the above schedules, we have: 8 LSU, 10 Rutgers, 13 Army, 32 WVU, 37 Bowling Green, 61 Louisville, 67 Ohio, 70 Pitt, 71 Wake Forest, 73 Maryland, 77 Navy, 84 USF, 88 Tulane, 90 UNC, 98 Syracuse, 100 Marshall, 101 USC, 105 Cincinnati, 109 Toledo, 114 UConn,
In light of those defensive rankings, there are a few performances that stand out:
Bailey - Bailey hauled in 8 passes for 115 yards and a TD against LSU, but was limited to 2 catches for 51 yards and a TD against Rutgers (albeit in the snow), 3 against Pitt and 4 against Bowling Green. He went only three games in which he did not find the end zone - Norfolk State, BG, and USF. That definitely says something for his consistency. Additionally, SteadyB had 7 100-yard games, and only 2 games of fewer than 75 yards. That's impressive.
Austin - Austin racked up 187 yards on 11 catches against LSU. Those numbers are simply astounding. For Austin to have the single best yardage total in a game against the #8 pass defense in the country (especially while his teammate had an excellent game of his own) really makes a statement. He totaled at least 6 catches in every game but 2 (BG and Marshall), but found the end zone only 4 times on the season. Definitely consistent, but when you're catching screens and shovel passes as often as Tavon does, it's easier to be consistent.
Lemon - Had one catch against a putrid Toledo pass defense, 3 against Cincinnati, and 2 against Tulane, which were the three worst defenses he faced. Total touchdowns: 1. But against the best? 4 against Rutgers, and 3 against WVU. Clearly, Lemon feasted on the midding teams on the schedule and Rhode Island. And by midding, in this group we're talking about the lower half of college football. He certainly isn't going to catch anyone's attention with that.
Sanu - I'll admit that when I started this exercise, I figured to find that Sanu did most of his damage against the weak part of his schedule, namely Ohio, Army, and Navy. Well, I was wrong. Sanu's only truly bad game was against Pitt where he was held to only 2 catches, but Rutgers won that game 34-10, so clearly he wasn't needed. The only loss where Sanu didn't come up huge was the snow bowl against WVU. Does it help that Sanu is the Knights' only stud receiver? Maybe. But I think it makes his feats all the more impressive when opposing defenses are keying on him.
Conclusion
If I'm picking 2 all Big East receivers, I'm taking Sanu and Bailey. Lemon simply didn't come through in the big games for Syracuse, and beefed up his stats against the soft underbelly of his stats. Austin was good, and is versatile, but given the type of receiver he is, I would expect that from him. To me, Bailey is the guy who makes WVU's offense go. He can take the top off the defense with his big plays and he has the hops and hands to go up and get the ball in the air. He was huge in all three of WVU's losses, and got into the end zone far more than anyone on the list. Sanu had a few monster games, but did it against fairly solid teams, all things considered. He doesn't average many yards per catch, but he does get into the end zone, which is important for the Rutgers offense. My ranking? 1. Bailey, 2. Sanu, 3. Austin, 4. Lemon.
[h/t to wvu07 for the post idea and ESPN.com for the stats]
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Good analysis
I would’ve picked the same order; however, it’s worth pointing out that in the games mentioned Lemon was rarely thrown to.
If Syracuse threw to Lemon as many times as Rutgers went to Sanu a game his numbers would have far exceeded Sanu’s. That’s not taking anything away from any of these athletes – they all did a great job this season.
As a Cuse fan – it was tough watching Lemon running open all through the middle of the season without a ball thrown his way!
The number of passes a team throws defintiely has something to do with it.
And if I remember right, Syracuse TE Nick Provo was 5th on the list, which oviously took some attention off Lemon. But hey, we can only go by the balls they catch.
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by Country Roads on Dec 6, 2011 2:46 PM EST up reply actions
True, but...
WV had no problems sharing the load between Austin and Bailey – both had outstanding years!
Syracuse seemed to lack an offensive identity all season long. Week to week they’d try something new out only to see it fail (except against WVU)…this is more an issue of play calling and game management. Like I said, I wouldn’t have picked it any differently…
Agree with your rankings
Bailey has the most yards, yards per catch, and td’s. He’s clearly number 1.
by Dynamicduo on Dec 6, 2011 4:07 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Agreed
With Bailey 1, Im still torn between Austin and Sanu at 2. I like what Austin brings on reverses/rushes and his explosiveness, but Sanu definitely has better hands and gets first downs. Tavon had a reception of 20 yds or more in all but one game, whereas Sanu only had that in 5.
Just checked cfbstats.com (which is a really good site btw)
And Sanu only had 3 catches of 25+, whereas Bailey had 13 and Tavon had 9. So I think I would take Tavon 2 since he’s a gamebreaker.
I would take Sanu at #2...
how bad would Rutgers be without him? Bailey is without a doubt the #1, big play all the time, ridiculous catches, very consistent…
Tavon dropped a TON of balls this year… too many for me to personally feel like rewarding him as one of the top two guys in the Big East…
Good Piece, CR....
I think you’re right on. Bailey is the man…and I really like the phrase: “The Hops. The Hands.” Ought to be on a t-shirt.
Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.

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