WVU vs. Clemson: Previewing the Orange Bowl by the Numbers

by Caleb Wygal on Dec 21, 2011 1:25 PM EST in BCS

The Champions of the Big East and ACC will meet on January 4 at the Orange Bowl in Miami. The Clemson Tigers will represent the ACC by virtue of defeating Virginia Tech for the 2nd time this season in the ACC Championship game. The Mountaineers landed in a tie atop the Big East standings, but will represent the Big East by virtue of having the highest BCS ranking in the conference.

The game features two high-powered offenses. The Mountaineers are led by junior quarterback Geno Smith who was one of the best passers in the nation this season. WVU’s trademark offensive game came in a loss to the #1 team in the nation, LSU, who also own the nation’s #2 defense. Clemson’s attack is led by Tajh Boyd. The dynamic quarterback who put up impressive passing numbers in his own right. The Mountaineers have a three-headed trio of dynamic wide receivers, but Clemson has perhaps the most well-rounded freshman since Adrian Peterson at Oklahoma in 1st team All-American Sammy Watkins at receiver.

The Mountaineer defense struggled at times this season to get off the field, particularly in the loss to Syracuse. That was predictable after losing 7 starters from last years defense who all ended up on an NFL roster at some point this season. The Mountaineers still ended up with the Big East’s 2nd best defense and in the top 30 in the nation overall. Clemson’s defense ranked near the middle of all schools in the nation.

If it was possible, West Virginia’s special teams, besides 2nd team All-American Tavon Austin, seemed to regress from the Bill Stewart coached special teams units of the past three seasons.

Below, I’ll show you a side-by-side comparison of the two teams featured in the Orange Bowl, and you can decide how the game might play out. Keep in mind that WVU played 12 games while Clemson played in 13. I will tell you how I think the game will play out after the statistical breakdown and ask for your predictions as well.

Overall Offense (per game)

	West Virginia	Clemson
Passing	7th (341.8)	21st (284.6)
Rushing	100th (117.8)	61st (155.8)
Overall	17th (459.8)	29th (440.62)
Points	19th (34.9)	27th (33.6)

ANALYSIS: WVU has a better passing game than Clemson, while Clemson is better on the ground. The points per game are almost even as are total yards per game. Advantage: Slight WVU

Overall Defense (per game)

	West Virginia	Clemson
Total Yards	4,084	4,932
Yards Per Game	340.33	379.38
Touchdowns Against	38	42
Overall	27th	59th
Points Against	63rd (26.3)	62nd (26.2
Strength of Schedule	55th	37th

ANALYSIS: Although WVU’s defense is going through a rebuilding year under Jeff Casteel, the Mountaineers gave up nearly 1,000 less yards on the season. However, the points against were nearly identical for both teams. That could be explained by WVU’s special teams putting the Mountaineer defense in short-field situations. The Tigers played a tougher schedule due to playing in the better conference. Advantage: WVU

Individual Offense

Quarterbacks

Geno Smith, WVU - Rating: 101.8, Yards: 3,978, TDs: 25, INTs: 7, Rushing Yards: -59, Rushing TDs: 1

Tajh Boyd, Clemson – Rating 99.0, Yards: 3,578, TDs: 31, INTs: 10, Rushing Yards: 186, Rushing TDs: 5

ANALYSIS: Geno Smith was one of the best passers in the nation in Dana Holgorsen’s offense. Tajh Boyd had a breakout season in his own right with a dynamic mix of run and pass. Advantage: Push

Running Backs

Dustin Garrison, WVU – Yards: 742, TDs: 6, YPCarry: 5.5

Andre Ellington, Clemson – Yards: 1,062, TDs: 10, YPCarry: 5.0

ANALYSIS: The Mountaineer run game struggled most of the season after Noel Devine’s departure. Some of that was due to inexperience in the backfield. Other parts of the run game struggles can be attributed to poor blocking by the Mountaineers offensive line. Clemson, however, featured a 1,000-yard back who could take pressure off of the passing game. Advantage: Clemson

Wide Receivers

Stedman Bailey, WVU – Receptions: 67, Yards: 1,197, TDs: 11, YPCatch: 17.9

Tavon Austin, WVU – Receptions: 89, Yards: 1,063, TDs: 4, YPCatch: 11.9

Ivan McCartney, WVU- Receptions: 47, Yards: 572, TDs: 3, YPCatch: 12.2

Sammy Watkins, Clemson – Receptions: 77, Yards: 1,153, TDs: 11, YPCatch: 15.0

DeAndre Hopkins, Clemson – Receptions: 62, Yards: 871, TDs: 4, YPCatch: 14.0

Dwayne Allen, Clemson – Receptions: 48, Yards: 577, TDs: 8, YPCatch: 11

ANALYSIS: I highlighted the top 3 wide receivers from both teams because I wanted to show the depth in receiver on both sides. Sammy Watkins was a 1st Team All-American in this, his Freshman season. Stedman Bailey stacks up with Watkins in stats, but Watkins is also used in a similar fashion to Tavon Austin where he runs the ball 2-3 times per game. The Clemson trio of receivers have more touchdowns overall. Advantage: WVU

OVERALL: I believe this will be an entertaining game that will fill the highlight reels. I have the feeling that WVU will make some mistakes on special teams, but Clemson turnovers might offset that. If the duo of Bruce Irvin and Julian Miller can put pressure on Tajh Boyd, it could lead to a few turnovers if he is forced to get rid of the ball quickly. Currently, the point spread favors Clemson by 3.5. I think WVU wins by 10 with a final score of 38-28.

What do you think will happen in this game? Feel free to post your thoughts and final score prediction in the comments below.

[Editor's Note: This article first appeared on the best site for following former Mountaineer players in their pro careers, WVUPros.com. - WVUIE97]

Tweet Comment 15 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Statiscal advantages

only look good on paper. If we play 4 quaters then we win. If we only play one half like we have all season, we lose.

by PicktownMountie on Dec 21, 2011 2:30 PM EST reply actions

I like the prediction.

I like it very much. And agree with Picktown about needing to play four quarters. The thing is, I feel like we finally put that type of game together. The defense has been improving and I think the layoff actually will benefit the offense by giving them a chance to get back in a groove. Plus, we will be healthy and rested, thus negating the depth advantage that Clemson has.

www.smokingmusket.com
@CountryRoadsWV

by Country Roads on Dec 21, 2011 3:30 PM EST reply actions

Winnable game if...

Punters can kick and turnovers are reduced. The main problem with special teams is poor punting. Short fields and lack of hang time can lose games. WV is nationally 27th in defense, but 84th in opponent red zone scoring. If short fields caused by poor punting and turnovers are reduced WV should be able to win this bowl. The WV defense is better than the
Clemson defense if they’re not put in a hole. Hopefully, after a year of playing, the freshmen RB’s can hang on to the ball a little better.

by OG&B on Dec 21, 2011 4:05 PM EST reply actions

stats are probably a little misleading...

and the WR comparision is way off… i think you’d hard pressed to find a coach who’d take WVU WR Corp over Clemsons. Allen and Watkins were both AP first team all americans. And you’ve got to admit the SOS / quality of wins is really not even close.

by OrangeHallucinations on Dec 21, 2011 4:15 PM EST reply actions

The SOS is what it is.

Clemson obviously has quality wins over FSU, VT (2x), and Auburn. Wake (who lost to Syracuse) and UNC (who beat Louisville and Rutgers) are both bowl teams, but don’t do much to raise the profile. The rest of the schedule is awful.

I didn’t realize Allen was an All-American. He scares the crap out of me. Watkins is going to get his, but he can’t win the game by himself (I hope). But Bailey, Austin and McCartney aren’t exactly chopped liver. They can do some damage.

www.smokingmusket.com
@CountryRoadsWV

by Country Roads on Dec 21, 2011 4:34 PM EST up reply actions

when i mentioned SOS..

i was really only referring to the statistical part of it. putting up 500 yards and 5 TDs on one team v another. WV certainly has a solid WR Corp. No doubt. and agree the rest of the wins were nothing to get excited about, but the losses (save NC state) were against solid competition (dont want to argue GT… facing a triple option offense is tough on anyone when its clicking). Certainly wont have to worry about the SOS talk in the B12.

by OrangeHallucinations on Dec 22, 2011 4:20 PM EST up reply actions

This is the type of game the 3-3-5 defense is at its best. Trust in it!

by OG&B on Dec 21, 2011 5:22 PM EST reply actions

All I know is that once this game is complete....

I would love for our Mountaineers to still be undefeated in BCS bowl appearances and add the Orange to the Fiesta and Sugar Bowl wins! WVU was not “supposed” to win the last two either but we all know how those ended up. Would be a nice springboard to the Big XII!

We're bound by a bond not completely understood by those outside, try as we might to explain it to them.

by IM4_WVU on Dec 21, 2011 7:38 PM EST reply actions

Possibly The Best Matchup Of Them All

These two teams are so closely matched offensively that this game could truly be the best game of the entire BCS set. The offensive numbers make the game too close to call but where I feel WVU will have the edge is that our defense, albeit not what it was last year, is a bit better than Clemson’s defense. The thing that makes it hard for offenses against WVU is the 3-3-5 and for those who aren’t familiar or don’t see it on a regular basis, especially when it is coached as well as Jeff Casteel coaches it, it is hard to make the reads necessary to adjust because you just quite don’t know what it is you are looking at when you walk up to the line. Now, with that said, where the 3-3-5 is vulnerable, is when the offense drops back to pass, the middle of the field opens up, and a mobile quarterback scrambles for yardage and Tajh Boyd is that type of QB but I still feel that his unfamiliarity with our D will be the key that leads to a couple of mistakes in our favor and I predict WVU by 13 in what has the makings to be an offensively offensive shootout.

by poeboy1969 on Dec 21, 2011 11:04 PM EST reply actions

Generally Agree....

Odd man fronts have given CU offense a little trouble this year – certainly going to be a factor… but offensively i think CU has a slight edge, with a fairly mobile QB and a solid running attack when the line decides to block. If WVU had more of a run / scramble threat CU would probably be in trouble…as that (along with CUs poor takling and TOs) is how they’ve gotten beat this year… not to say their wont be opportunities in the secondary. If you look at who they lost to (and even who they didn’t – Wofford, MD) thats how those teams were able to put up so many yards/points. WVU appears to me (haven’t watch all their games – and SYR i’m sure isn’t the norm) a little more reliant on the passing attack / one dimensional then CU, and i’m not sure if they’ll be able to take advantage of CUs weakness on D to the tune that other teams have. But, if WV can get pressure / rattle Boyd into making some stupid throws.. could be a long night for Clemson… no doubt there are going to be some points put up.

by OrangeHallucinations on Dec 22, 2011 10:40 AM EST reply actions

Smith is definitely not a running threat.

But CU did a pretty good job against Logan Thomas…twice. So I’m not sure what to think of that factor. I generally agree that a running QB makes life more difficult on a defense, but as far as one-dimensional teams go, WVU has done a pretty good job of making it work by throwing, throwing, and throwing again.

I think the game is going to come down to pass protection, turnovers, and special teams. And both teams have been inconsistent in those areas this year, so your guess is as good as mine about what’s going to happen.

www.smokingmusket.com
@CountryRoadsWV

by Country Roads on Dec 22, 2011 11:41 AM EST up reply actions

It'll likely be wild...

Definately agree with your keys to the game. i could see this ending 49-42 in OT or either team being up 3 scores by half time… neither would surprise me all that much. Looking forward to seeing what happens

by OrangeHallucinations on Dec 22, 2011 1:59 PM EST reply actions

I See Orange

Been a Clemson Fan for years…the Tigers will not let this one slip away. When i look into my crystal ball…I see a team in Orange. Too much Boyd, Watkins, Allen, Hopkins and Co. This team is just getting started!

by kevpull on Dec 22, 2011 3:46 PM EST reply actions

My dad went to Clemson

I grew up seeing that same Orange, from Tigerama to tailgates at Death Valley. I even have a picture of me with Perry Tuttle circa 1981 after their National Title. Perry Tuttle’s House (a Christmas ornament I made in preschool) is still the first ornament that goes on my tree every year.

That being said, I’ve seen that Orange and I’ve seen that orange become tears…remember Tate George?

"Thus, it is with those nurtured in Appalachia—they leave, but they look back, remembering pleasant things. The land has claimed them, and its ties will not be severed." --Maurice Brooks

Dr. Charley West, Please don't block me if I have typos or poor grammar.

by Oregon Mountaineer on Dec 22, 2011 5:55 PM EST up reply actions

I still see Orange

This is a new day my friend. This team is special. I remember all the undeachieving teams from years gone by. Just look at what’s happening. Dabo. Chad morris. All the talent coming in. Just keep believing with me. I remember. The days of bennie Cunningham. And jerry butler. Perry brothers. Those teams werenothing like what is happening now. Live in the moment. Enjoy. Your Tropicana. You will see.

by kevpull on Dec 22, 2011 8:15 PM EST via mobile up reply actions