Fanshawe's Degenerate Gambler's Poll - Bowl Game Edition

Gambler_s_poll_medium

The poll above is a creation of mine. I've been tinkering with it over the last few years. The reason I call it the Gambler's Poll is that I arrive at each team's point total by factoring together the several statistical elements that I favor most in college handicapping. Among them are yards-per-point differential, yards-per-play differential, and Sagarin schedule strength. Each category is weighted, with more emphasis being placed on yards per point differential and schedule strength. Unlike the purpose of the BCS poll, which is to figure out a 1 vs. 2 matchup (note mine would have been different!), this poll is meant to be a quick guide for the gambler. The higher ranked team in a bowl matchup should not only win, but cover, so long as the line isn't egregiously out of whack. You will note that only 30 teams are ranked. That is because in the past, matchups involving teams lower than 30th have not done well against the spread.

I wish I had the time to put this poll together each week, but it is overly time consuming since the metrics I use (other than Sagarin) are not posted for me anywhere. My wife and I compile them each week. Please remember that I post this only for fun. In no way am I, or The Smoking Musket, encouraging anyone to gamble.

After Bowl Season, I'll post a wrap-up to see how the poll does this year. It has never been worse than 59% against the spread. Incidentally, Clemson was 53rd in the poll, so confidence is high for the Orange Bowl! Let's Go Mountaineers!

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join The Smoking Musket

You must be a member of The Smoking Musket to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at The Smoking Musket. You should read them.

Join The Smoking Musket

You must be a member of The Smoking Musket to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at The Smoking Musket. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker