True Percentages on West Virginia's Chances of Making The BCS


So much for my belief that we would be a double-digit favorite this Thursday. Sagarin's Predictor number had us as a 1-point favorite, but Vegas has mitigated that and believes the game is even. The good news, as you can see, is that Cincinnati is a pretty much a double-digit favorite as hosts for Connecticut. Assuming that Cincy has a 77 percent chance of winning based on their 10-point favoritism, and our even-money chance vs. South Florida on the road, I would place our statistical chances for a BCS trip at 61.5 percent (.77 x .50 =.385 - 1.00 = -61.5), or to put it in familiar horse-racing terms, roughly 3-5, which is pretty strong if you are talking horses, and hopefully college football teams.

I am, however, a little dismayed that more than 85 percent of the money is on the favorites in both of the outcomes that we need. I hate being against the house...

Go Bearcats! Go Mountaineers!

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