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Devine Comedy or Devine Tragedy?

There has been much consternation among WVU fans about Noel Devine's role (or utter lack thereof) in WVU's offense in the second half of the Gator Bowl.  Namely, Devine's five second-half carries for 41 yards appeared to be woefully inadequate, especially after he had gashed FSU's defense for 127 yards on 11 first-half carries.  Couple Devine's lack of involvement with a grand total of 7 second-half points and a resulting 33-21 loss for the Mounties, and one has to wonder what might have been if WVU had stuck to its early game plan and kept feeding Devine.  At first glance, the issue would look to be a colossal coaching blunder.  But, as always, there may be more to the story than we had originally thought.  I tried unsuccessfully to find a video replay of the game on the internet.  If anyone knows of a website where I could actually re-watch the game (I know, I'm a glutton for punishment), please apprise me.  Absent video evidence, I went back and examined the play-by-play drive chart in an effort to determine whether the coaches used Devine in the most optimum fashion.  Breakdown after the jump.

 

Star-divide

First, a word of caution.  Being confined to a play-by-play drive chart and my foggy memory of the actual events, there are things we can't know.  We can't know whether a play was a zone read or a designed run.  We can't know whether an audible was called based on FSU's defenisve alignment.  And we can't know exactly what was going through the coaches' minds in the 20-30 seconds they have to call a play---injuries, attempts to take advantage of certain matchups, attempts to set up certain plays, adjustments based on certain plays that succeeded or failed earlier in the game, potential adjustments to FSU stacking the box after Jarrett got hurt, and so on and so forth.

WVU got the ball for the first time in the half at our own 38 down 16-14 with 12:15 to go.

1 - Devine rush for 2 yards.

2 - Incomplete to Arnett.

3 - Complete to Austin for 19, plus 15 for facemask, plus 13 for personal foul.

1 - Smith fumbles the snap, loss of 7.

2 - Complete to Jock for 4.

3 - Incomplete pass.

4 - Missed FG.

The main issue on this drive was the fumbled snap.  Who knows what play was called there, but not only did it burn a down, it put WVU behind the chains and basically forced us to pass.  I don't remember whether the pass to Jock was a screen or something over the middle, but I really don't have a problem with throwing something short and trying to get it to third and manageable.  On third and 13, maybe you can run a draw with Devine, but I'm sure people would've complained about that as well.  Maybe you give it to Noel on first down again, but on the other hand, you don't want to get too predictable running on first down every time.  All in all, I think this series of calls is defensible and should have resulted in a FG, which would've given us back the lead.

Next drive started down 16-14 at our own 24, 6:10 left in the quarter.

1 - Incomplete pass.

2 - Devine rush for 5.

3 - Smith rush for loss of 2.

4 - Punt.

I don't remember what the third down play call was here.  I'm guessing it was either a pass or a zone read that got blown up.  Maybe you give it to Devine on third down here via a draw or screen.  But it's easy to second-guess.  Again, I'd argue that the series is defensible, but Noel probably should have had an extra touch here somewhere.

Next drive starts at the WVU 20 down 23-14 with 3:50 to go.

1 - Devine rush for 34.

1 - Smith rush for 5.

2 - Devine rush for 1.

3 - Complete to Starks for 9.

1 - Complete to Devine for 13.

1 - Devine rush for loss of 1.

2 - Jock rush for 7.

3 - Complete to Starks for 7.

1 - Clarke rush for 5 - TD.

Honestly, I don't know how anyone could argue with the playcalling here.  We executed and converted a couple key third downs, Devine ran well, and the drive resulted in a TD.  The main thing I noticed here is that Devine limped off after his last carry and was replaced by Jock.  Nobody said anything about it at the time, but I have to wonder if the injury (tweak?) had any effect on his carries from that point on.  Yes, he continued to play in the 4th quarter, but was he being used as a decoy?

Next drive starts at the FSU 35 with 8:51 to play, down 30-21.

1 - Smith rush for 2.

2 - Smith rush for 0.

3 - Pass incomplete.

4 - False start, pass to Lyons incomplete.  Turnover on downs.

To me, this is the worst series we had.  Devine has to touch the ball at least once here, whether it be via screen, draw, swing pass...something.  And probably on first down.  That play appeared to be a zone read, and when the DE crashed on Noel, Smith kept for a gain of 2.  At that point, you have to know you're going to go for it on 4th down.  So that's where I would make certain that Noel touches the ball.  Granted, they may have audibled based on a defensive alignment or something, but the play ended up being a pass and Geno dropped the ball after being flushed from the pocket.  Not a good play.  The third down play call was fine---screen to Jock---but the execution was lacking and the pass got batted down at the line.  If they complete it, it probably sets up third and short.  Instead, the play is blown up and on fourth down we get a false start then have to chuck it up to our worst receiver when Geno gets pressured again. 

Final drive started on WVU 20 down 33-21 with 2:02 to play.

Every play was a designed pass that ended in a sack, a completion, an incompletion, or a short rush by Geno after being flushed from the pocket.

At this point, the game was essentially over.  We had to pass, and there really wasn't much need to get Noel the ball for any reason.  I can't find a half-by-half breakdown, but overall FSU held a 37-23 advantage in time of possession.  In the second half, FSU ran 34 plays compared to 31 for WVU, 10 of which were on the last drive.  So on 21 meaningful second half snaps, Noel had 5 rushes and 1 catch.  There were probably 3 times when he legitimately could have touched the ball and didn't.  Would that have made the difference?  Maybe.  Maybe he picks up a first down on third and five and extends a drive that ends in a touchdown.  Personally, I would've liked to have found out.  But based on this breakdown, his lack of touches isn't nearly as glaring as many made it out to be.

The problem as I see it is that this game was a microcosm of the entire season.  There was a graphic during the bowl game showing that approximately 25% of Devine's carries go for zero or negative yardage.  That presents a problem in an offense designed to methodically move the ball down the field and that for one reason or another lacks the ability to consistently complete passes over 10 yards.  I'm not saying it's Devine's fault---it may be the offensive line.  But nevertheless, it's reality.

If Devine loses yardage on first down, it puts us in a second and long situation and forces us to play catch-up the rest of the series.  So that's the danger of continually feeding Devine---the offense gets behind the chains and the offense sputters unless the quarterback can make up for those negative plays.  Of course, he's going to break off a couple long runs every game too.  When he does, those are the drives that end up in touchdowns.  So at least in part, that's why the offense is inconsistent.  It starts and stops based almost entirely on Devine's ability to make positive yardage. 

That puts the coaches in a difficult situation.  You simply can't ignore Devine's gamebreaking ability.  But the more you feed him, the more you risk those negative plays.  Then you have the whole injury issue, which we saw in the Cincy and Louisville games.  I'm not sure what the answer is.  Obviously Devine needs touches and he needs to get them in ways that put him in the best chance to generate the most yardage.  But he continually seems to make negative plays that hinder the offense's ability to put together a long drive.  While I don't necessarily think the coaches have maximized his abilities, I do appreciate the issues they are forced to consider in making those decisions.

Hopefully the coaches will have another year to figure things out, but I'm not exactly counting on it.  And despite our frustrations, Noel has simply been a joy to watch these last three years.  He has been a human highlight reel on the field and an exemplary Mountaineer off it, and regardless of his decision, we will wish him all the best. 

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KUDOES TO COUNTRY ROADS

This post is the only thoughtful & intelligent post I have read re: the NOEL ONLY GOT 5 TOUCHES IN THE 2nd HALF SCANDAL! Another point is that FSU was beating our defense, limiting the time/ # of plays available to the offense, irregardless of the playcalls.
I believe the key to the next season will hinge on the big uglies…the O line. This year was swiss cheese, preventing JB from utilizing his skills..too much scrambling for his life.

by CTEER on Jan 9, 2010 4:23 PM EST reply actions  

I actually just brought myself to watch this earlier today

The fumbled snap in the first series was really more of a fumbled exchange between Geno and Devine – the play was supposed to go to Devine. And I believe the 3rd down play in the second series was a designed run for Geno. Not a great call, I didn’t think. The thing that stood out most to me was just how badly Capers and Barclay got worked. All day.

by couchburner on Jan 9, 2010 4:25 PM EST reply actions  

We lost the game

On the posession after the long kickoff return. We had a chance there to take back momentum. On that crucial posession where we desperately needed an answer offensively we can’t even get a first down after starting inside their 40.

Devine has to be the focus there offensively.

Also I have no peoblem giving Devine the ball when we’re down late. His big play potential is better than our passing game (see UCONN) and we had timeouts.

Excuse it all you want but Devine has been neglected all season. For whatever reason our offense has put being “balanced” and “spreading the wealth” ahead of scoring points. That needs to stop.

If we lose Devine then I fear the offense will have no strength at all, instead of having one it severely under-utilizes like this year.

His explosiveness bailed the offense out on multiple occassions. Take that element out of this offense and it could be truly awful.

by Beamer'sGoiter on Jan 9, 2010 6:13 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

How was I "excusing" it?

I said he wasn’t utilized to his potential. There has to be a better way to use him. And your last point is exactly what I was saying—-he’s too explosive to keep off the field. But you can’t dismiss the intricacies of what he brings to the table.

by Country Roads on Jan 9, 2010 6:17 PM EST up reply actions  

My perspective:

25% of the time Devine gets stopped for no gain.

However, 40% of attempted passes fall in complete. And another 10% of called pass plays ended in sacks or QB rushes for no gain this year.

So 25% chance we gain no yards with Devine running. 50% we gain no yards on a called pass play.

Devine had 4 rushes of over 70 yards this year. We completed 0 passes of over 70 yards this year. And only complete 3 passes of over 50 yards.

Our QB’s threw 10 INT’s this year against 12 TDs. I don’t remember Devine fumbling, but he may have once.

The excuses I’ve heard the most, mostly from Caridi and Sportsline, are that #1 we had 2nd and 3rd and longs and were forced to pass it, and #2 we didn’t have very many snaps.

1) We had second and third and long because we didn’t run Noel Devine on first downs. Whether it’s to spread the ball around (to lesser player makers) or to pass to keep them off balance (even though we had a true freshman QB and were running at will), it was the wrong not to give Noel the ball until he was stopped. Just because FSU knew we were going to run on 1st down didn’t mean they could stop us. They hadn’t stopped us all year. Likewise, we should have been running on 2nd and long as well. Running on 2nd and long is just as deceptive as throwing on 1st down. It’s also a much high percentage play for our team.

We claim penalties, fumbles, etc. put us behind the 8 ball so we couldn’t run. I say that is foolish. If Devine is getting 6 and 7 yards a carry, even if its 2nd and 13, he’s your best bet. In the Sugar Bowl in ‘05, our first drive of the game we had a holding. it was then 1st and 20. We didn’t start passing or complain that we didn’t have a chance because we shot ourselves in the foot. We ran the ball because we were good at running the ball and Steve Slaton ran 52 yards for a TD.

2) We didn’t have very many snaps against FSU and we didnt have very many snaps the last two seasons because our offense sucked and we went 3 and out. Don’t blame the Defense or the new clock rules. We have no one to blame but ourselves. If we picked up first downs, we would have more snaps. And we would pick up more first downs if we gave the ball to Devine.

If you only give him the ball on 50% of 1st and 10’s to keep the D off balance and then don’t give him the ball on 2nd and anything longer than 5 because “you’re behind the chains” and give it to Clarke instead of Devine on 3rd and short, that doesn’t leave very many situations to give touches for one of the country’s best backs.

We need to start handing him the ball on 1st and 10 AND 2nd and 8 or even 2nd and 13. Give him a chance. Personally, I’d like the ball in our best players hand as much as possible. And Devine is just as dangerous on 2nd and 13 and any of our passing plays were this year.

by The 25314 on Jan 9, 2010 6:23 PM EST reply actions  

You make some good points.

I guess there are 2 things I would disagree with though.

1. The running game is designed not to lose yardage. It’s designed to pick up 3-5 yards per play, thus allowing your team to realistically either run or pass on the next down. Yes, you can switch it up or do something deceptive, but that’s generally the idea. The pass game works differently. The chances of a complete pass are lower, but when the pass is completed, it generally picks up more yards (I’ll throw an average of 8-12 yards out there, but without looking it up I may be way off). Unfortunately, our running game operates more like a passing game in that we either get stopped for no gain or end up ripping off a big run. There’s not much in between. I see your point about Devine having a chance of ripping off a big run because that’s been his MO, but I think there are variables out there that you’re not necessarily accounting for, like defensive philosophy on certain downs and distances. And there is something to be said for balance. I understand getting the ball in your playmaker’s hands, but when you rely too heavily on your running game, you inevitably run into Pitt 2007 (remember how everyone was complaining about that?). Yes, we can win 10 games a year running the ball all the time. But the idea is to win 12, and I truly believe that’s what we’re striving for. Could we have won more games this year running the ball more? Probably. But at some point, you have to develop your passing game—-which includes teaching pass blocking, having a QB who knows how to read defenses, and recruiting WRs who can make plays, all of which we’ve been lacking. Those things don’t happen in one year. They must be taught, practiced, and implemented in games. We’re in the middle of that process right now. Jeff Mullen may or may not be the offensive mind to make it work, but I can at least see where he’s trying to go with everything.

2. Generalizations are fine, and maybe I should have included this in the original post, but exactly which plays should the ball have gone to Noel? My point was that it’s easy to make generalizations about Devine getting more carries, but I wanted to put us in the mind of the playcaller and try to figure out exactly when and where he should have received those carries.

by Country Roads on Jan 10, 2010 7:48 PM EST up reply actions  

1) I truly believe it is a fallacy that a run dominates offense peaks at 10 wins a year.

2) I can go back and give you specific plays if you wish, but I also know that I sent 4 texts in the 4th quarter to a friend screaming about how devine didn’t get the ball. So I noticed during the game, too.

by The 25314 on Jan 10, 2010 11:50 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

1. I guess you’re right—-Nebraska did okay with a run-dominated offense in the mid 90’s. But you have to at least present the threat of the pass in certain situations, and then be able to execute in those situations. Still, why do so many coaches preach balance? I’m going to venture that most of them know the game better than anyone who posts on here….

2. I’m not saying you didn’t notice during the game. But yes, I would like to know exactly which of the above plays Noel should have touched the ball. And while you’re at it, I’d like an accompanying explanation of the other elements that I listed above that go into calling a play.

by Country Roads on Jan 11, 2010 7:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Our Real Problem

I don’t think our problem is that we don’t give Devine the ball enough. Our real probelm is that when we don’t give him the ball we rarely have success. Our passing game was supposed to take a leap forward, but more often than not, our passing plays go back and forth between unsuccessful and catastrophic.

I was unhappy with the offense not because Devine didn’t get the ball enough, but because we can’t seem to execute a forward pass.

I think the blame falls on the offensive coordiator, not for playcalling, but for overall lack of execution.

by WVUSouth on Jan 10, 2010 7:57 AM EST reply actions  

Great Post, CR...

…with regard to getting the ball to Devine in the second half, I agree that with the number of plays we ran, perhaps he should have gotten two, maybe three more touches. But, aside from the excellent point, I actually look to the defense’s inablility to get off the field as the major problem. FSU was 5-of-8 on third down in the second half, and 4-of-5 in the fourth. Had we been better on 3rd down defense, especially in the fourth, Noel would have gotten the requisite touches.

South…I agree, but I don’t know if a lack of execution falls directly on the OC, does it? He isn’t throwing or catching the ball…the pick JB threw was on what I thought was a good play call and Tavon was open if the ball isn’t underthrown. Zip, I kinda agree with you about giving the ball to Noel on 2nd and long, but it’s kind of hard to make that argument and say that the offense sucks and goes three-and-out, becaue Noel isn’t going to break it every time, and a lot of those second-and-long touches will wind up being third-and-not-manageable. A friend of mine and I were talking the other day, and we came to the conclusion that our offense has become the equivalent of an American League baseball team…we are always playing for a three-run homer. We can’t manufacture a run (i.e. drive) I think you would agree, that we want to move away from relying on the big play, and return to the days where we put together sustained drives. I don’t think we can there if we just keep feeding a 5-8 back. Noel is great, but he is undersized, and the same friend pointed out that the central problem with having him as a feature back is that he isn’t the kind of back that breaks tackles. He relies on vision and space and most of his great plays involve him not being touched. If the defense touches him, usually, he is down.

Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.

by JP Fanshawe on Jan 10, 2010 9:05 AM EST reply actions  

Good Points

I agree with the 3 run homer analogy. Where is out intermediate passing game? We seem to have two types of passing plays- screens and bombs. The problems come when defenses, like Florida State, blitz. You just cant sit in the pocket long enough for deep routes to develop when the defense blitzes. (This idea, by the way, is why the ‘prevent’ defense sucks. When a team has 3rd and long, you should blitz and not give the long routes time to develop instead of laying back in a soft zone)

I understand what you mean about the players being the ones who are on the field- you are right, they are responsible for what goes on. However, I do believe that the ultimate job of a coach, and this is what defines the great ones, is to know how to manipulate your system to make your players as successful as possible. I firmly believe that good coaches are the ones that make good adjustments whether it be personnel adjustments or scheme adjustments. Think about it- on paper, all plays work, all systems make sense. But on the field, when the bullets are flying, you always have to make adjustments. The great coaches are great at this, so to the to the casual fan, the transition is fairly seamless. Average coaches take longer to adjust, therefore the team goes through extended periods of confusion while they figrue out what to do.
It seemed to me that in a lot of games our offense came out like a house on fire for a couple drives, then the defense made some sort of adjustment, and we didn’t have a good answer.

I don’t think Mullen is a a bad coach, i just think the offense isn’t working right now, and the buck stops at the one in charge, fair or not.

As far as the defensive problems, it was troubling. I think the big problem was our linebackers, particularly Williams and Lazer(sp?) Their one weakness is speed, so teams with athletic qbs or quick rbs who attack the perimeter give us trouble. Basically we get hur trying to cover a lot of space. We bury teams that run pro-style up the gut, but the edge gives us trouble.

by WVUSouth on Jan 10, 2010 10:19 AM EST up reply actions  

IMHO, Noel needs more touches per game. Granted, we’re not talking about a gazillion more, just 10-12. Pitt ran Dion Lewis an average of 25 times a game. WVU ran Noel an average of 18.5 and only once did he get 25.

In general, when Noel got less carries than his average, we lost (Notable exception – Cincinnati). Part of that may be due to our bad passing game. We keep flooding the field with receivers, but can never quite seem to get the ball to them with any consistency. Sometimes, it almost seemed that the opposing defense could basically ignore them.

Once a Mountaineer, always a Mountaineer.

by MtnEer_in_SC on Jan 10, 2010 11:07 AM EST up reply actions  

IMHO

it all begins and ends with the non-existent pass protection

by WVUIE97 on Jan 10, 2010 1:07 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m willing to give a coach a pass on lack of execution if it is an exception rather than the rule. However, this offense’s failure to execute is 100% on Stew and Mullen.

It’s they’re job to practice reps until the offense can execute. It’s their job to mentally and physically prepare the players. There is no question devine and brown have talent. The coaches are responsible for harnessing the players abilities, putting them in the beat positions and making sure they execute properly.

It’s not a coincident that certain coaches always seem to win and others do not. It’s because they are good coaches and know how to maximize the potential of every player and piece together the puzzle.

Sure, players are going to make mistakes sometimes and fail to execute, but why do we even have coaches if it’s all on the players. If it was all about the Jimmys and the joes why do we even need coaches.

by The 25314 on Jan 10, 2010 2:27 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Good God, we got beat like a gong. We could have designed every play to get the ball to Devine and that wouldn’t have changed the fact that we got out-coached, out-worked, out-hussled, out-everythinged by a 6-6 ACC team. We gave up 226 yards rushing, out time-of-poss.’ed by 14 minutes, gave up 6/7 in the red zone, went 4-11 on 3rd down, got sacked 4 times, had two QBs who combined for 128 yards worth of production, FSU had 4 drives of 10+ plays, FSU attempted a FG or scored a TD on 80% (EIGHTY FUCKING PERCENT) of all their drives, and on and on…

This is like watching “Snakes on a Plane” and saying, “Gee, if only Samuel L. Jackson had acted better, this movie would’ve been a sure-fire winner!” We got worked on O and D. Bad.

by The Double U on Jan 10, 2010 10:36 AM EST reply actions  

Snakes on a Plane

That’s funny right there, I don’t care who you are.

by Country Roads on Jan 10, 2010 7:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed, But....

…did anyone think “Snakes On A Plane” was going to be good, let alone a “sure-fire winnner?” You brought it with the stats, though…not much argument to be made….

Now is the time boys to make a big noise.
No matter what the people say,
For there is naught to fear, the gang's all here,
So hail West Virginia, hail.

by JP Fanshawe on Jan 10, 2010 11:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Fact: I saw snakes on a plane on opening night.

 I can’t tell you how many times I’ve been in the stands the past two years and said,“Enough is enough! I’ve had it with this m-f offense on this m-f field!”

by The 25314 on Jan 10, 2010 11:46 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

no two ways about it

HCBS looks more confused and befuddled on the sidelines than Wade Phillips. Only difference is Wade is a puppet controlled by the real coach Jason Garrett. HCBS might be the nicest guy in the world, the guy you want to sit next to at Thanksgiving diner, but he sure as heck aint the guy you want on the side line. He may be a heck of a recruiter most likely for the aforementioned reasons. I also like the way he runs the program. I feel its cleaner, more respectable program then our previous czar. X’s and O’s he’s terrible. He is our special teams coach, and for all intensive purposes that is the WORST part of a bad 9-4 team. The scary part is that we should have been 10-2 (Auburn game) going into the bowl game .. maybe even 11-1 if some of those calls in the Cincy game went our way. The USF game we deserved to loose, but again our coaches had a weak game plan there…. “lets attack the outside on USF defense with two all-american calliber defensive ends” … great planning guys. Just another example of our coaches not identifying other teams strengths and weaknesses. I think our team had/has no identity. Are we a run team, or a pass team? HCBS said after the loss to a mediocre 6-6 FSU team that he went away from Devine to “spread” the ball around. That is just rediculous. Our offensive line was awful all season. Imagine if Devine had better blocking? Even pass blocking was terrible .. maybe JB has a better season if we could protect him. Our defense was horrible too. We had no defensive “stud” on our team. No game changer. Yes Sands emerged as a player maybe we can build around, Julian Miller & Chris Neild are also players. Bottom line, our coaching is terrible. We had one signature win this year again Pitt … other than that we struggled to beat almost every other team on the schedule .. Marshall, UCONN, RU … can you imagine if we finished 1st in the BE and played Florida … would have been 60-3. I guess we should be glad we played FSU and only lost by 12.

by jerzieboy75 on Jan 12, 2010 10:28 AM EST reply actions  

The key...

…is the O-line. They were porous this year.

It's a great night to be a Mountaineer...wherever you may be!!!

by GeorgiaMountaineer on Jan 15, 2010 5:59 AM EST reply actions  

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